Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

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.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MCS MOVING ALONG THE KS/NEB STATE LINE IS NOT BEING HANDLED VERY
WELL BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM DID INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MOVING ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH/OUTFLOW FROM MO CONVECTION. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST
THIS MCS MOVING DUE EAST AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOW AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY PROPAGATION AND
RECENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN AC DECK FILLING IN BETWEEN THE DIEING
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MO AND THE MCS TO THE NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
HAVE ALSO GONE AGAINST THE MODELS SFC WINDS AND WILL KEEP THEM
BACKED FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST CO WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../336 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/
TODAY/TONIGHT: FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS CHALLENGING
DUE TO MODEST UNCERTAINTIES OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS
OF EARLY THIS MORNING...A CLUSTER OF TSRA WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE WESTERNMOST DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED BY A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE OBSERVED ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NE
COLORADO INTO SW NEBRASKA. AT THE SFC...TWO DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARIES
WERE ANALYZED PER SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FINE LINES. FIRST
BOUNDARY STRETCHES SOUTH OF ABILENE TO TOPEKA AND THE SECOND FROM
CONCORDIA TO HIAWATHA. TO THE NORTH OF THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY...A
WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS 5-7 DEG F
LOWER. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKER TONIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES
INITIATING CONVECTION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG CAP
IN PLACE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WESTERN CLUSTER BEHAVIOR. CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...KEEPING CURRENT CLUSTER NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEW DEVELOPMENT ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK NOR
ISO TSRA ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES OVER THE CWA AND THEREFORE RETAIN
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ATM REMAINS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE SO ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SVR AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MCS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EAST AND ANTICIPATE THE BULK REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH BEST PROBABILITIES OF TSRA CLOSER TO THE NE BORDER.

SUNDAY/BEYOND: STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS NORTHERN INFLUENCES KEEPING HOLD OF THE
CWA. LIKEWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ON SUN. THEREFORE
REMOVED TSRA CHANCES OUT OF THE CWA FOR SUN-TUE AS APPRECIABLE SFC
CONVERGENCE DEPARTS THE AREA AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN IN
PLACE. FOOTNOTE OF UNCERTAINTY WOULD OF COURSE BE ANY LARGE MCS THAT
MANAGES TO REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO ATTM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MAXIMUM READINGS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SPELLS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH
THE CENTURY MARK EACH DAY.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
556 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
556 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BLAIR