River Flood Warning 44, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
MODELS POOR HANDLING OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND MCS. 09Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN OR. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS. 09Z SFC OBS SHOW A MESO
HIGH OVER WEST CENTRAL MO FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KS. HOWEVER A SFC LOW WAS
STILL OVER SOUTHEAST CO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO
SOUTHERN NEB.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
SINCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
THE NEXT ROUND OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL WASH OUT
SINCE THERE WAS NOT MUCH COOLING ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 06Z RUC AND NAM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEB HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COLD POOL AND
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OR EVEN EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
KS/NEB STATE LINE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. THEREFORE THINK THAT THE
EFFECTIVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS SHOW AND THINK THERE IS A CHANCE CONVECTION
WILL ROLL ACROSS NORTHERN KS AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR POPS TONIGHT. WITH MOST AREAS BACK INTO A SOUTHERLY SFC
WIND WITH FULL INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WARMER TODAY SAVE THE
FAR NORTHEAST. CONSIDERED THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO BE AROUND 100 TO 103 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP AND WIND
FORECAST JUST IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT AN ADVISORY OUT AT THIS
TIME. THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. AS
LONG AS THE INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND THIS IS HOW THE FORECAST IS
TRENDED TOWARDS. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THINKING AN MCS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST EACH NIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MCS...THINK A HOT AND HUMID
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WED.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH END TOWARD 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS SO WILL CARRY LOW CIGS AND VISBY IN TEMPO
GROUPS. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-211015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
507 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND MOVE
EAST ALONG THE STATE LINE. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH THESE CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING
ON THE BIG BLUE RIVER AND THE REPUBLICAN RIVER BASINS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PATTERN OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RENEWED STORMS EACH NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS EACH NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
525 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WHILE
HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE TEMPERATURE IS BETWEEN 100
AND 103 DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HAVE PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND AVOID STRENUOUS
ACTIVITIES DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.

WOLTERS

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