River Flood Warning 28, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.UPDATE...

MLCAPE STILL NEAR 1000J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
35KTS STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. BUT...TSRA HAVE
BEEN PULSY AND SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW THE SVR
THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS TO EXPIRE AT 00Z / 7PM
CDT. FOCUS TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NEAR-TERM FORECAST MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING
MESOSCALE DETAILS...13/18Z NAM HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON NEAR-TERM
ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND RESOLVES TSRA AREAS ACROSS
BOTH NORTH CENTRAL...AND EXPANDING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. TWO SWATHS
OF HIGH QPF POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...AND
THE SECOND OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE ROBUST CONVECTION IN SC KS
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WILL LIFT INTO OVERNIGHT. GOING FF WATCH
WILL REMAIN INTACT.

LUNDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD...BEFORE FOCUS
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. TSRA WILL IMPACT MHK
FIRST NEAR 04Z...AND HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TOP/FOE TIMING STILL A BIT IN QUESTION...AND
PREFER MORE TIME TO WATCH ON-GOING CONVECTION EVOLVE BEFORE
INSERTING TSRA MENTION. SHOULD SEE TSRA THERE NEAR 06Z
THOUGH...AND WILL AMEND AS APPROPRIATE. LINGERING SHRA WITH MVFR
CIGS AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR
THEREAFTER. FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY...SO EXPECT WIND FIELD
TO SHIFT TO THE NW BY MID-MORNING.

LUNDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/

DISCUSSION...
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. 20Z WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVED INTO
NORTHERN OK WHICH HAS MASKED THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FIRST IS THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
THE SECOND IS BACK WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MESO
HIGH AND SYNOPTIC FRONT ARE KICKING OFF NEW STORMS AS WELL. WITH THE
OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTH...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER THINK THAT
HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KS WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MODEL
PROGS STILL SHOW VERY HIGH MOISTURE WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES.
BECAUSE OF THIS WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN TACT. IF IN FACT
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE A SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE NEXT
SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AWAY.
COOLER TEMPS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 19Z RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS MUCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH CIN GREATER THAN 50 J/KG.
HOWEVER THERE IS FINALLY SOME DECENT INSOLATION ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS BETTER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

REMNANT PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE
RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A WEAK WAVE OR PERHAPS AN MCV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS. HELD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY MORNING BECAUSE
OF THIS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE MILD DUE TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THINK THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS WITH NO OBVIOUS SFC
FEATURE TO FOCUS WEATHER. ONE THING TO WATCH IS POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STORMS WITHIN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWER 90S BACK IN THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS PROG ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE. THEREFORE
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE HIGHER POPS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS SUPPOSE TO MOVE IN.

AFTER FRIDAY CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DECREASES WITH THE GFS KEEPING
ANY BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER COORDINATION...INSERTED SOME LOW POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN LINE WITH HPC GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT TEMPS
PERSISTENT IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM
MONDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
947 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
947 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
RIVER FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SPOTTERS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLTON TO JUNCTION CITY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TOPEKA.

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