Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

646 
WWUS83 KTOP 070827
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
227 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-080000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0005.101107T1800Z-101108T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
227 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008...
009...010...011...012...020...021...022...023...024...026...034...
035...036...037...038...039...040...054...055...056...058 AND
059...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...NORTHEAST...EAST CENTRAL AND NORTH
  CENTRAL.

* WIND...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
  THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DRY AIR TO THE 
  SURFACE...AND DROP IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 
  UPPER TEENS. 

* IMPACTS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH 
  CRITICALLY DRY AND CURED VEGETATION TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL 
  OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR...WITH RAPID GROWTH AND 
  RAPID SPREAD POTENTIAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

BLAIR

914 
WWUS83 KTOP 080002
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
602 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-080115-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-101108T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
602 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED AT 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 008...009...010...011...012...020...021...022...
023...024...026...034...035...036...037...038...039...040...054...
055...056...058 AND 059...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 23Z THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 8 TO 12 KTS AFTER 23Z THU.
THE LLJ WILL INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH MAY CAUSE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UP TO 2000 FEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

GARGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 711 AM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010/

DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SPLIT FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEST. SFC OBS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ARE ALREADY SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FORECAST OS FOR DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS VERY
DRY BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS. WITH A SFC RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DRY FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL PARCELS ADVECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
JUST OFF THE SFC. DAY TIME MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TODAY AND THE LOWER 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS INCREASES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS BELOW
NORMAL. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM. THESE MODELS AMPLIFY A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EAST FOR WED AND THU WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
FAVORED THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS FOR THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
IN GENERAL THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO
OCCUR WITH A DECENT SFC WAVE AND PRECIP CHANCES TO LIFT ACROSS
EASTERN KS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE ECMWF STILL BRINGING
IN A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SMALL
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THINK TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY BEFORE THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED A COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COLD AIR GET WRAPPED UP WITHIN THE CYCLONE.
FOR NOW TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW APPEAR TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP. HOWEVER THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW TO MAKE THINGS A LITTLE INTERESTING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS.

WOLTERS

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS THE
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGS WARMER
TEMPS AND STRONGER WINDS. THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ABOUT
925MB TODAY AND A LITTLE DEEPER TO AROUND 900MB ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TODAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY SFC RIDGING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND UPPER 20S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR TODAY SHOULD ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO REMAIN
AROUND 25 PERCENT...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
UNCHANGED AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HOWEVER
THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TODAY AND CONSIDERED A WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

WOLTERS

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 AM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
500 AM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE GRASS LAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WOLTERS