Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Topeka, KS

916 
WWUS83 KTOP 291242
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA...IN COORDINATION WITH
AREA LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY
FOR A COMBINATION OF CURED FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

.SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL COUPLE WITH CURED FUELS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR AND RAPID GROWTH
CHARACTERISTICS.

KSZ023-038-054-300000-
/O.EXA.KTOP.FW.W.0004.101029T1800Z-101030T0000Z/
POTTAWATOMIE-WABAUNSEE-LYON-
742 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 008...009...020...021...022...034...035...036 AND
037...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...
  WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON 
  WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COUPLE WITH CURED
  GRASSES...AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
  AND RAPID GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS...STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

KSZ008-009-020>022-034>037-300000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0004.101029T1800Z-101030T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-
MORRIS-
742 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 008...009...020...021...022...034...035...036 AND
037...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...
  WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON 
  WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. 

* IMPACTS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COUPLE WITH CURED
  GRASSES...AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR
  AND RAPID GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS...STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

669 
WWUS83 KTOP 291323
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
823 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA...IN COORDINATION WITH
AREA LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY
FOR A COMBINATION OF CURED FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

.SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL COUPLE WITH CURED FUELS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR AND RAPID GROWTH
CHARACTERISTICS.

KSZ008-009-020>023-034>038-054-300000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0004.101029T1800Z-101030T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-LYON-
823 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 008...009...020...021...022...023...034...035...
036...037...038 AND 054...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. 

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON 
  WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL COUPLE WITH CURED 
  GRASSES...AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE 
  BEHAVIOR AND RAPID GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS...STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

437 
WWUS83 KTOP 292359
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

KSZ008-009-020>023-034>038-054-300100-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-101030T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-LYON-
659 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008...009...020...021...
022...023...034...035...036...037...038 AND 054...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...

PRIMARY ISSUE TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN CURED
GRASSES...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION AT THE END OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS
INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BREAKING THROUGH THE INVERSION ALL NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS. MORNING LOWS REACHED FREEZING AT SEVERAL SITES IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE
DEWPOINT TEMPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE CWA WIDE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LIMITED
MIXING TODAY TO AROUND 890 HPA...BUT IT WILL BE WELL MIXED 900 HPA
TEMPS TO THE SURFACE AND ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP FOR MIXING
DEPTH VARIATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY...BUT LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIVER BOTTOM AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO
BECOME CALM FOR A FEW HOURS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS...
BUT AT THIS POINT WILL ASSUME A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
SUNRISE.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FORECAST MODELS FURTHER DEEPEN
THIS TROUGH INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH DIGS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 60
AND LOWS NEAR THE UPPER 30S.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 26 KTS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 23Z FRI.

GARGAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WILL SEE A QUICK INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES OUT AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. EXPECT LIMITED MIXING
TODAY ONLY TO AROUND 890 HPA. DESPITE THE LIMITED MIXING...AREA
00 UTC RAOBS INDICATE A DRIER AIRMASS PRESENT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY DUE
TO A WESTERN TEXAS SOURCE REGION. THIS MIXING DEPTH WILL PLAY THE
MAIN ROLL IN DETERMINING RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATING THAT AREAS FROM EMPORIA THROUGH MANHATTAN
AND WASHINGTON WILL SEE MIN RH AT OR BELOW 20% WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA BELOW 25%. DEEPER MIXING WOULD RESULT IN FURTHER
SURFACE DRYING...AS WELL AS GUSTIER WINDS...SO THERE IS SOME
SMALL UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN OVERLAP
OF SUB-20% RH...STRONGEST WINDS...AND CRITICAL FUELS BUT MAY SEE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING DEPENDING ON
INFORMATION FROM LOCAL FUELS EXPERTS AND DATA RECEIVED FROM THE
12 UTC RAOB.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-034>037.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
839 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291345-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
839 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO LEVELS NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT...ALONG WITH CURED GRASSES AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL EXACERBATE FIRE SPREAD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.