Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CWA ATTM...WITH NW WIND SHIFTS NOTED AT FNB
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CNK AND K9K7 BACK THROUGH DDC.  WEAKER LEADING
IMPULSE ACROSS NC KS ATTM IS AHEAD OF STRONGER PUSH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE MADE IT NORTHWARD TO
AROUND I70 WITH SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO FORM I70 NORTHWARD. LAPS
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES AROUND 2500 INCREASE TO 3500 AND STILL
RISING. BULK SHEAR PROGGED AROUND 40KTS 0-6KM WITH 20KTS 0-1KM ALSO
NOTED.

ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE BEGUN WITH SURFACE BASED CELLS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. INITIAL CONCERNS WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONSIDERING STEEP UPPER LAPSE
RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS FRONT MOVES ESE
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE AND WIND THREAT TO
INCREASE.  STILL SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE SO ANTICIPATE MOST SEVERE
THREAT TO END LATE EVENING WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT
DECREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

67

WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER TDS TO SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO
OTTAWA LINE NEAREST THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF SFC FRONT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WY/CO/NE 3 STATE AREA
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS. PENDING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
AREA...FORWARD PROPOGATING CORFIDI VECTORS STEER THE COMPLEX EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE GFS WIND FIELD A BIT MORE VEERED THAN THE
NAM AFTER 09Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS...BEST NORTH WHERE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTS THE COMPLEX
TRACKING.

THURSDAY...LINGERING POST-MCS PRECIP POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...H5 RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. WELL
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH BOOSTS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 90 AREA-WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LLJ NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD TSRA TO THE AREA.
TRENDED BEST POPS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE COOLER 700MB TEMPS AND STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE DESERT
SW. MEANWHILE...CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS OF LATE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH 08/12Z MODELS HAVE EJECTED THE LOW A BIT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MEAN SWERY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...MAINLY IMPACTING WESTERN KS/NE. LEE TROUGH/SFC SFC LOW
SIMILARLY REMAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS. AS HEIGHT FALLS SHIFT
EASTWARD...EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SFC FEATURES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. INTRODUCED POPS...MAINLY
NORTH...OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SETS-UP FROM SFC LOW
OVER SW KS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN
ON NOSE OF NOCTURNAL JET.

LONG RANGE...MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GENERAL
SET-UP ALLOWS H5 CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...HPC PREFERRED
08/00Z ECMWF HOLDS BACK ENERGY OVER NV/UT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING IT
NEARLY NORTHWARD AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 08/06Z GFS EJECTS A MORE DAMPENED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. NOTABLY...08/12Z GFS
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. EITHER WAY...850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SFC FRONT MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...AND HANG UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.  CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS: ADDED CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY...AND UPPED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH SOGGY WEATHER OBSERVED
LATELY LOCALLY. HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AS REFLECTED BY POPS...WILL BE WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB
NOCTURNAL JET SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO
NEAR...OR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLOUDS...CONVECTION...AND SFC
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL INFER COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPS...AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

LUNDE

&&

.AVIATION...

PUT STRONG TEMPO GR0UPS IN THE TOP/FOE SITES WITH FRONT NEARBY AT
TIME STORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
VFR AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP EYE OUT FOR LOW STRATUS BEHIND
STORMS. SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTH THEN EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND ARE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SENECA TO COUNCIL
GROVE LINE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON
WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 77 ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
717 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW QUENEMO           38.53N 95.56W
06/08/2010  M5.27 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
718 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW QUENEMO           38.53N 95.56W
06/08/2010                   OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WITH WATER FLOWING
            OVER. REPORTED SOME ROADS WITH UP TO 1 FOOT OF FLOWING
            WATER AROUND SHAWNEE HEIGHTS ROAD AND 301ST IN OSAGE
            COUNTY.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
727 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     BLIZZARD         1 W QUENEMO             38.58N 95.55W
06/08/2010                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OSAGE CTY SHERRIF REPORTED K68 HWY JUST WEST OF QUENEMO
            HAD UP TO 1 FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER IT AND WAS
            IMPASSABLE. ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS IN THE QUENEMO
            AND MELVERN AREAS WERE IMASSABLE AND CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W QUENEMO             38.58N 95.55W
06/08/2010                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OSAGE CTY SHERRIF REPORTED K68 HWY JUST WEST OF QUENEMO
            HAD UP TO 1 FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER IT AND WAS
            IMPASSABLE. ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS IN THE QUENEMO
            AND MELVERN AREAS WERE IMASSABLE AND CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
757 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TORNADO          1 S GRIDLEY             38.08N 95.88W
06/08/2010                   COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH OF GRIDLEY. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NW LONE ELM           38.13N 95.31W
06/08/2010                   ANDERSON           KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD TWO THIRDS OF A WAY TO
            THE GROUND 1 MILE NORTH OF WELDA.

&&

GARGAN