Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

008 
WGUS73 KTOP 082350
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

KSC031-045-059-111-139-090230-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100609T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-LYON-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN COFFEY...FRANKLIN...LYON...OSAGE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 641 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS REPORTED FLOODING 
OF MANY COUNTY ROADS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTY
AND ALSO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE SOUTH OF PRINCETON. RADAR 
HAS ALSO ESTIMATED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY IN THESE AREAS. 
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL STILL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED 
TO OCCUR THIS EVENING IN MANY AREAS. RAINFALL RATES HOWEVER ARE 
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 35.  

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...AMERICUS...BALDWIN 
CITY...CLINTON...EMPORIA...EUDORA...HARTFORD...LEBO...LYNDON...
MELVERN...NEOSHO RAPIDS...OLPE...OSAGE 
CITY...OTTAWA...OVERBROOK...POMONA...PRINCETON...QUENEMO...READING...
SCRANTON...WAVERLY...WELLSVILLE...WILLIAMSBURG AND BETO JUNCTION.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 206.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 199.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9541 3839 9550 3836 9550 3816 9623
      3817 9636 3854 9635 3886 9555 3886 9550
      3888 9550 3901 9518 3897 9517 3897 9505
      3848 9506

$$

697 
WGUS73 KTOP 090144
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
844 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

KSC045-090148-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100609T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS-
844 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY...

RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COUNTY AND NO REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  

LAT...LON 3839 9541 3839 9550 3836 9550 3816 9623
      3817 9636 3832 9634 3843 9596 3872 9589
      3873 9505 3848 9506

$$

KSC031-059-111-139-090230-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100609T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-LYON-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
844 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN COFFEY...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN LYON AND SOUTHERN OSAGE
COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS 
REPORTED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN OSAGE INTO 
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH MANY ROADS REPORTED UNDERWATER IN THE 
QUENEMO AREA. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN LYON AND 
NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES...BUT HAS DECREASED ELSEWHERE. RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA UNTIL 930 
PM.    

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARTFORD...LEBO...LYNDON...MELVERN...NEOSHO RAPIDS...OLIVET...OLPE...
OSAGE CITY...OTTAWA...POMONA...PRINCETON...QUENEMO...RANTOUL...
WAVERLY...WELLSVILLE...WILLIAMSBURG...BETO JUNCTION AND CENTROPOLIS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 199.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9541 3839 9550 3836 9550 3816 9623
      3817 9636 3832 9634 3843 9596 3872 9589
      3873 9505 3848 9506

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT SLIDING INTO THE CWA ATTM...WITH NW WIND SHIFTS NOTED AT FNB
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CNK AND K9K7 BACK THROUGH DDC.  WEAKER LEADING
IMPULSE ACROSS NC KS ATTM IS AHEAD OF STRONGER PUSH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE MADE IT NORTHWARD TO
AROUND I70 WITH SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO FORM I70 NORTHWARD. LAPS
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CAPES AROUND 2500 INCREASE TO 3500 AND STILL
RISING. BULK SHEAR PROGGED AROUND 40KTS 0-6KM WITH 20KTS 0-1KM ALSO
NOTED.

ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE BEGUN WITH SURFACE BASED CELLS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. INITIAL CONCERNS WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONSIDERING STEEP UPPER LAPSE
RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS FRONT MOVES ESE
EXPECT CELLS TO BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE AND WIND THREAT TO
INCREASE.  STILL SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE SO ANTICIPATE MOST SEVERE
THREAT TO END LATE EVENING WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT
DECREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

67

WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER TDS TO SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO
OTTAWA LINE NEAREST THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF SFC FRONT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WY/CO/NE 3 STATE AREA
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS. PENDING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
AREA...FORWARD PROPOGATING CORFIDI VECTORS STEER THE COMPLEX EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE GFS WIND FIELD A BIT MORE VEERED THAN THE
NAM AFTER 09Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS...BEST NORTH WHERE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTS THE COMPLEX
TRACKING.

THURSDAY...LINGERING POST-MCS PRECIP POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...H5 RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. WELL
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH BOOSTS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 90 AREA-WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING 850MB LLJ NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD TSRA TO THE AREA.
TRENDED BEST POPS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE COOLER 700MB TEMPS AND STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE DESERT
SW. MEANWHILE...CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS OF LATE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH 08/12Z MODELS HAVE EJECTED THE LOW A BIT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MEAN SWERY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...MAINLY IMPACTING WESTERN KS/NE. LEE TROUGH/SFC SFC LOW
SIMILARLY REMAIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS. AS HEIGHT FALLS SHIFT
EASTWARD...EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SFC FEATURES INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. INTRODUCED POPS...MAINLY
NORTH...OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SETS-UP FROM SFC LOW
OVER SW KS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN
ON NOSE OF NOCTURNAL JET.

LONG RANGE...MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GENERAL
SET-UP ALLOWS H5 CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...HPC PREFERRED
08/00Z ECMWF HOLDS BACK ENERGY OVER NV/UT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING IT
NEARLY NORTHWARD AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE 08/06Z GFS EJECTS A MORE DAMPENED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. NOTABLY...08/12Z GFS
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. EITHER WAY...850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SFC FRONT MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY...AND HANG UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.  CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS: ADDED CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY...AND UPPED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH SOGGY WEATHER OBSERVED
LATELY LOCALLY. HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AS REFLECTED BY POPS...WILL BE WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB
NOCTURNAL JET SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO
NEAR...OR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. CLOUDS...CONVECTION...AND SFC
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL INFER COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPS...AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

LUNDE

&&

.AVIATION...

PUT STRONG TEMPO GR0UPS IN THE TOP/FOE SITES WITH FRONT NEARBY AT
TIME STORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE CONVECTION
VFR AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP EYE OUT FOR LOW STRATUS BEHIND
STORMS. SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTH THEN EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND ARE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SENECA TO COUNCIL
GROVE LINE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON
WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 77 ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.