Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Topeka, KS

192 
WGUS73 KTOP 150721
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
221 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

KSC031-139-150945-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100715T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-COFFEY-
221 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR
COFFEY AND SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. THESE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR 
WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...LE ROY...LEBO...OLIVET...WAVERLY...NEW STRAWN AND BETO
JUNCTION.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 165.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9588 3824 9596 3839 9594 3860 9595
      3854 9571 3842 9550 3829 9550 3825 9550
      3825 9551 3803 9552

$$

BARJENBRUCH

487 
WGUS73 KTOP 150801
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

KSC031-139-150945-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100715T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-COFFEY-
301 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN COFFEY AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 255 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING ALONG BENEDICT CREEK SOUTH OF LEBO. FLASH FLOODING IS 
LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 
UP TO AN INCH THROUGH 4 AM WILL ONLY ADD TO THE FLOOD THREAT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBO...OLIVET...WAVERLY...NEW STRAWN AND BETO JUNCTION.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 9566 3821 9585 3827 9595 3839 9594
      3860 9595 3853 9569 3840 9559 3836 9550
      3811 9551

$$

BARJENBRUCH

524 
WGUS53 KTOP 150938
FFWTOP
KSC031-139-151115-
/O.EXT.KTOP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100715T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 615 AM CDT

* AT 431 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CONTINUED TO REPORT FLASH    
  FLOODING DUE TO RUNOFF FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS     
  ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEBO...
  OLIVET...
  WAVERLY...
  NEW STRAWN...
  BETO JUNCTION...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY ROADS AND FARMLANDS 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 9566 3821 9585 3827 9595 3839 9594
      3860 9595 3853 9569 3840 9559 3836 9550
      3811 9551

$$

BARJENBRUCH

664 
WGUS73 KTOP 151114
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

KSC031-139-151123-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100715T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-COFFEY-
614 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
COFFEY AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 161.

AT 613 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT THE FLASH FLOODING
IS NO LONGER OCCURRING AND RUNOFF FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
RECEDE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3819 9566 3821 9585 3827 9595 3839 9594
      3860 9595 3853 9569 3840 9559 3836 9550
      3811 9551

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06 UTC AVIATION FORECAST AND SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAD TO UPDATE SHORT TERM GRIDS AS THE OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED WELL
THROUGH THE CWA BUT HAS NOW BEGUN TO STALL OUT. LLJ HAS
INTENSIFIED AND THERE IS SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. ALSO HAVE SPORADIC
CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING
FACTOR IN TEMPS...AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
DETAILING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL RESIDE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IMPACTING TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUP ATTM. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNRISE.

BLAIR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010/

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 90S WEST. DEWPOINT
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND BRINGING DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO AROUND 110 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME MIXING
HAS BROUGHT TDS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST KEEPING THE NUMBERS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WEAK CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA ATTM WITH STRONGER FRONT BACK WESTWARD.

WILL LET ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AROUND 9PM WHEN HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE FALLING. CONCERN BEYOND THE HEAT WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STRONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. FACTORS IN FAVOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ARE STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600MB AND NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW
IN THE MORNING SOUNDING. HOWEVER SHEAR IS WEAK...AND CURRENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS ALSO. FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY AND
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AND APPEARS TO LACK A SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO
TRIGGER STORMS IN OUR AREA. BETTER CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA AND PROPAGATE SE INTO OUR CWA...BUT
WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAK LLJ THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR SENSIBLE WX FCST KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR 0-6Z
HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD THOSE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AND WITH
STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED STRETCHING CAN
SEE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE ACCELERATED BY STORM OUTFLOWS AND WILL MAKE TRUE
POSITION DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FOR THURSDAYS WEATHER. MORE CLOUDS
OR EARLY RAIN MAY DECREASE THE HEAT THREAT AND WILL NOT CARRY AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE RECENT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LINGERING AROUND AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF.

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST WITH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT
AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF AN MCS
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK.

67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-160545-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1236 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY. THIS MAY CAUSE PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS...OR EVEN SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG WINDS UP TO 50
MPH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME IS LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
836 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW GREENLEAF          39.65N 97.08W
07/14/2010  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
857 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ021-034-035-150230-
CLAY-DICKINSON-OTTAWA-
857 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA
AND NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 930 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND
NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
TALMAGE...NILES...WAKEFIELD...SOLOMON...ABILENE...
WOODBINE...ENTERPRISE AND CHAPMAN. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 266 AND 289 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
916 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ010-021>023-036-150245-
CLAY-GEARY-MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
916 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...EAST
CENTRAL CLAY...RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHERN GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 945 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...EAST CENTRAL
CLAY...RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHERN GEARY COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
RILEY...MILFORD...WHEATON...WESTMORELAND...OGDEN AND MANHATTAN.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 303 AND 310 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 50 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
943 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ022-023-036-038-150315-
GEARY-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-WABAUNSEE-
943 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE...
GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...POTTAWATOMIE...GEARY
AND NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORM SPOTTERS
IN JUNCTION CITY AND FORT RILEY HAVE MEASURED WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ST.
GEORGE...LOUISVILLE...WAMEGO...BELVUE...VOLLAND...ALTA VISTA...ST.
MARYS...ALMA...MCFARLAND AND PAXICO. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 290 AND 337 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1016 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ038-039-054-055-150345-
LYON-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
1016 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN
OSAGE AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN OSAGE
AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DOVER...ALLEN...TOPEKA...AUBURN...
HARVEYVILLE...ADMIRE...PAULINE...TECUMSEH...BERRYTON...BURLINGAME...
CARBONDALE...SCRANTON AND RICHLAND. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 188 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 355 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
109 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLOOD            EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
07/15/2010                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES BEGINNING TO CAUSE STREET
            FLOODING.

&&

BARJENBRUCH