Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Topeka, KS

656 
WGUS73 KTOP 130852
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSC111-127-197-131200-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-100613T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WABAUNSEE-MORRIS-LYON-
352 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LYON...MORRIS AND SOUTHERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

AT 333 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER SEVERAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY. DUNLAP 
ROAD AND V AVENUE HAD 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER WITH OTHER SECONDARY 
ROADWAYS EXPERIENCING FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEN...ALTA VISTA...BURDICK...BUSHONG...COUNCIL GROVE...DUNLAP...
ESKRIDGE...PARKERVILLE...WILSEY AND KEENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 9635 3851 9636 3852 9692 3859 9693
      3887 9650 3886 9649 3888 9649 3895 9638
      3903 9594 3883 9594

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH MHK...WHICH WILL REACH TOP/FOE NEAR 08Z THEN PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH SCATTERED/MULTI-CELLULAR NATURE OF
TSRA...MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUP. SFC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...SO MAY NEED TO EXTEND TEMPORAL DURATION OF TSRA AT
EACH OF THE TERMINALS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...CONSIDERING
TSRA STRETCHING DOWN TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. CIGS HAVE BEEN
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH TSRA UPSTREAM...AND CONTINUED THAT TREND.
DO EXPECT A BREAK IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA SUNDAY EVE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. WILL REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/TRACK OF SUNDAY
STORMS. PLACEMENT OF FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS WIND DIR.

LUNDE

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
20Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC OBS
SHOW A STALLED FRONT/INVERTED SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR GREAT BEND TO
OTTAWA AND WASHINGTON. ALSO THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION HAS MOVED DOWN TO AROUND CHANUTE TO NEAR
HERINGTON. CONVECTION HAS COMMENCED IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND THERE
AREA A FEW MORE ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KS.

THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS FIGURING OUT WHERE THE
CONVECTION WILL GO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WITH PWS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25
INCHES /WELL ABOVE NORMAL/. WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THEY KEEP THE 850 THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH GENERAL DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD. THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHWEST KS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. HPC
FAVORS AN AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM WHICH WOULD BRING IT RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THERE WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIP WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCH/HR CREATING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND HAVE ISSUED A WATCH BECAUSE OF THIS. BECAUSE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WHERE THERE COULD BE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH
THE HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE THINK THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
GREATER HAZARD OVERNIGHT. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS NUMBERS FOR
LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NEXT MCS WILL
EVOLVE. DID HEDGE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING.

WOLTERS

UNCERTAINTY ON FRONT/EFFECTIVE FRONT POSITION RISES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WITH MUCH DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE INTERACTION OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROF STILL EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING...BUT THE
TREND FOR A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF ANY SUBSEQUENT MCS SHOULD BE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME WITH THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH. THIS TRACK
COULD STILL IMPACT AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO TIMES NORMAL AND
MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE FOR NEAR SEVERE AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES COME INTO FOCUS. SOME SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE KEPT INTO TUESDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THE NORTH END OF ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND IS LOW BUT
NOT ZERO...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE VALUES HARD NOT TO INCLUDE.
SOME SIGNALS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST AND THE NEXT UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE NOT
TERRIBLY DEEP OR IMPRESSIVE AND WILL LEAVE THESE PERIODS DRY. THE
WESTERN TROF WILL AGAIN BE A SLOW MOVER AND ALLOW HEIGHTS TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND
FRIDAY...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT RANGE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THE NORM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM
SUNDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-132330-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO
AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A GREATER CONCERN TO
START THE WORK WEEK AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
929 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KSZ021-130300-
CLAY-
929 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY COUNTY...

THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OAK HILL.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

GARGAN