Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

615 
WGUS73 KTOP 222249
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
549 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

KSC031-059-111-139-230045-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100423T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-LYON-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
549 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN COFFEY...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN LYON AND SOUTHERN OSAGE
COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...PUBLIC REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAD BEEN RECEIVED 
IN SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS BEEN 
REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNED AREA...CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FRANKLIN 
COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...EMPORIA...HARTFORD...LANE...LEBO...MELVERN...NEOSHO
RAPIDS...OLIVET...OLPE...OTTAWA...PRINCETON...QUENEMO...RANTOUL...
READING...RICHMOND...WAVERLY...WILLIAMSBURG...NEW STRAWN AND BETO
JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. SMALL 
AMOUNTS OF RUNNING WATER CAN QUICKLY WASH A VEHICLE OFF OF THE ROAD 
INTO MUCH DEEPER WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9550 3819 9565 3813 9583 3814 9596
      3816 9596 3817 9636 3841 9636 3857 9587
      3864 9505 3839 9506

$$

BARJENBRUCH

157 
WGUS73 KTOP 222352
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

KSC031-059-111-139-230045-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100423T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-LYON-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
652 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN COFFEY...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN LYON AND SOUTHERN OSAGE
COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO 
FLOODING IN THE EMPORIA AND OTTAWA AREAS...AS WELL AS RURAL PARTS OF 
FRANKLIN AND LYON COUNTIES. RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS BEEN 
REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNED AREA...CAUSING THIS FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...EMPORIA...HARTFORD...LANE...LEBO...MELVERN...NEOSHO
RAPIDS...OLIVET...OLPE...OTTAWA...PRINCETON...QUENEMO...RANTOUL...
READING...RICHMOND...WAVERLY...WILLIAMSBURG...NEW STRAWN AND BETO
JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9550 3819 9565 3813 9583 3814 9596
      3816 9596 3817 9636 3841 9636 3857 9587
      3864 9505 3839 9506

$$

BARJENBRUCH

235 
WGUS73 KTOP 230042
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

KSC031-059-111-139-230051-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100423T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-LYON-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
742 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN LYON AND SOUTHERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND THE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO 
DECREASE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3839 9550 3819 9565 3813 9583 3814 9596
      3816 9596 3817 9636 3841 9636 3857 9587
      3864 9505 3839 9506

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
139 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH LIMITING CEILINGS RESULTING.
PRECIPITATION ALSO AFFECTING PERSISTENCE AND LEVEL OF CEILINGS.
WILL GO WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR FOR NOW AND WATCH FOR TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES.

65

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ON PRECIPITATION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.

WV IMAGERY AT 08Z THIS MORNING DEPICTS LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WEAK 500MB
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS NOTED ON OBJECTIVE UA ANALYSIS.
40KT 850MB LLJ HAS PICKED UP ACROSS CENTRAL OK. COINCIDENTALLY...
SPOTTY CONVECTION BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NEAR FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
TOP CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN
RESPONSE...LEE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON-GOING AT THE START OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
CONTINUED FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK RIDGING
ABOVE 500MB WILL LIMIT DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDER LIKELY DUE TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-70 PRIOR TO 23/00Z NOTED ON 22/00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 00Z. LOCALLY...SUBSIDENCE AND INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOK TO BRING A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
AROUND 03Z AND 09Z. AFTER 06Z...LEADING LOBE OF ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY CONTINUED WAA
VIA NEAR 50KT LLJ...AND EXIT REGION OF 300MB JET STREAK. SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA NEAR 09Z. TSRA WILL THEN EXIT KS AND MOVE INTO MO
BY MID-MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING AND HEATING
ACROSS NE KS AFTER 15Z.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED...AND WILL BE
HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY EARLY DAY INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION...AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES STILL TO SOON TO BE ACCURATELY RESOLVED BY
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/STRONGEST SHEAR WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LIES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER BY THE
MORNING CONVECTION...AND SFC DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS THE FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 2000J/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED
ATM...AND 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO ARE ALL PLAUSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BETTER TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER THE WARM FRONT
WHERE NEAR SFC WIND FIELD WILL BE MORE BACKED. ANOTHER LULL IN TSRA
COMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD PENDING UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED OF CLEARING...SO EXPECT
CHANGES TO BE MADE NEARER TO EVENT CONCLUSION.

SATURDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB LOW...AND THE IMPACT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ON THE PRIMARY LOW. PROXIMITY OF
NEARLY STACKED LOW...CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND EVENTUAL
COLD FROPA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY...PROMPTED PROLONGATION OF CHANCE
POPS.

SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
60S...COOLER THAN THE 70S OBSERVED THE PREVIOUS WEEK...AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF APRIL.

NO CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY.

LUNDE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-230945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
445 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SPECIFICS REGARDING THIS EVENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CLEAR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE CONTINUES SATURDAY. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LUNDE