Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IS NOW IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM.  STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
GALLATIN/MADISON/BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WARANAUSKAS

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS OF 145 PM CONDITIONS ARE
FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF DILLON AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE NEAR BUTTE.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN ERN MT COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER.
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE TOO IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PACNW TROF
WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TOMORROW.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT TOMORROW AFTN AS THE NEXT PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM IDAHO. MONTANA REMAINS IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING MOSTLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S...WITH
A FEW PLAINS LOCATIONS IN BLAINE/FERGUS COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW
90S.   WARANAUSKAS

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY CHANGE TO A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...SINCE NO MODEL
FAVORED ANY PARTICULAR DAY OR THE STRENGTH OF ANY ONE GIVEN
SYSTEM...THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED NEAR CLIMO THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRIES TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH...A
BIT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THUS...NOT MUCH PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS WE
TRANSITION LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO
DAY...OTHER THAN A VERY SLOW/GRADUAL COOLING TREND FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
CURRENTLY IN NW MT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MT THIS EVENING.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 30-40 KTS...WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.  VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY STORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION CORES.  THE TROF
AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT AFTER
03Z...WITH CLEAR TO SCT SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MT.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATED 2015Z.
WITH FUELS CURING STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION AND AT CRITICAL STATUS
IN FIRE ZONE 116 (SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS & CLARK COUNTY)...THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.  LATEST FORECAST DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO A QUARTER-INCH OF RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...LAND/FIRE
MANAGERS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO POSSIBLE FIRE STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING STRIKES AWAY FROM THE MAIN RAINFALL AREAS WITH THESE
STORMS.  WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  54  86 /  40  20  20  10
CTB  51  82  52  79 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  54  86  54  85 /  40  30  30  20
BZN  51  86  50  88 /  40  30  30  20
WEY  39  77  38  78 /  40  30  30  20
DLN  50  78  48  79 /  30  30  30  20
HVR  56  89  53  87 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  52  83  52  82 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...CASCADE...CHOUTEAU...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...BLAINE...EASTERN TETON...JUDITH
BASIN...FERGUS...MEAGHER...JEFFERSON...BROADWATER...MEAGHER...
GALLATIN...MADISON...BEAVERHEAD

&&

SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS
LONG TERM...BRUSDA
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010

MTZ008-012>015-047>055-072115-
BEAVERHEAD-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
MADISON-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-
JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
312 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ009>011-044>046-072115-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-
312 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WHILE NO WATCH IS IN EFFECT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
516 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 N CARDWELL           46.07N 111.90W
08/06/2010  E50 MPH          JEFFERSON          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH

&&

NJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
522 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WSW HOGELAND          48.83N 108.79W
08/06/2010  E50 MPH          BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 50 MPH. NO
            HAIL.

&&

MPJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
551 PM MDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW THREE FORKS        45.88N 111.57W
08/06/2010  M51 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   MESONET

            THREE FORKS AWOS REPORTS 51 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

MPJ

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