Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON...RIDGING
BACK OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WE'VE SEEN SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...MAINLY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SEABREEZES SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE ACTIVITY. TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY NOON...AND ARE ON
TRACK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANYONE
WORKING OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS
IN THIS HEAT...AS HEAT INDICIES SOAR INTO THE 105 TO 111 DEGREE
RANGE.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS CONTINUING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS IS TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER WEST TOMORROW AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH (OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FL). WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...WE'D EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WELL-INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PW PLOTS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL... SO HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM 40% INLAND TO
30% ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MID 90S.

LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND DRAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA/NORTHERN FL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE WILL BE
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...GIVING US A SOUTHWEST FLOW...MEANING ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
FOCUSED INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN PENINSULA. WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 95 DEGREES OR
SO INLAND...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST (A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN TODAY AND THURSDAY).

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS BY THE NE STATES FRIDAY EVENING AND
PUSHES A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE STATES. THIS WILL
BRING BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. FOR OUR AREA...SCATTERED/40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPCOMING GUIDANCE MAY BRING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WILL
REQUIRE BRINGING HIGHER POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS GFS/MOS REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE DESCRIBED FORECAST SOLUTION AND POPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK AGAIN INTO THE PENINSULA
WITH HOT DAYS AND WARM EVENING TEMPERATURES. A DRY AIRMASS WILL
DESCEND UPON THE REGION AS A 500MB HIGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS TE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF. GUIDANCE STILL KEEP SOME 30
POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
TO KEEP ATTM DUE TO THE RETURNING SEA BREEZES/DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VCTS COULD BRING PERIODS OF LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET
AROUND THE TAF SITES AS SEABREEZES PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT IN GENERAL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED WINDS OVER OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER WESTWARD. FLOW
REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...AND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  93 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  78  94  77  93 /  20  30  20  40
GIF  77  95  77  95 /  20  40  20  50
SRQ  78  92  78  91 /  20  30  20  40
BKV  76  95  76  94 /  20  30  20  40
SPG  83  93  82  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-281500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
500 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL AGAIN LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATIONS
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS TODAY
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT
AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MCMICHAEL

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