Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1248 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE TO 30 PERCENT
AFTER 8 PM AS SUN BEGINS TO SET. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURTS
WITH DAMAGING WIND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FAVORS HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST COUNTIES WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR INLAND COUNTIES. TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN SOUTH OF FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER AREA TO
MOVE/SAG INTO SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A
RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG 500 MB RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THUS
PROVIDING A RATHER DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WIND. WHICH WILL BE A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. AS THE 500 MB RIDGE
REMAINS AROUND 596 DM...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND IN THE MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ON THE COAST. AFTERNOON
WEST COAST SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THEM TO PROVIDE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE EACH
DAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EARLIER PROGS OF
AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD HAVE DISAPPEARED AS
THE GFS NOW SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA AND SO A
CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH TO POPS WAS USED.

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY A VFR PATTERN...BUT SHRA AND TSRA WILL CREATE LOCALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 00Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INTO TUESDAY TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO
2 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  92 /  30  50  20  30
FMY  74  92  75  93 /  20  50  20  30
GIF  74  92  75  93 /  30  50  20  30
SRQ  74  91  75  93 /  30  50  20  30
BKV  72  91  72  92 /  30  50  20  40
SPG  79  91  79  91 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...35/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-202100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER THIS
MORNING. THE STORMS WILL THEN BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF
TIME TODAY...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...AND RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR THE EARLY
MORNING OR EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FLZ052-201900-
POLK-
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE ALFRED...OR NEAR HAINES CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH...WILL AFFECT WINTER HAVEN...WAHNETA...LAKE ALFRED AND
INWOOD...UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2792 8169 2806 8185 2827 8166 2827 8157
      2825 8155 2819 8151 2815 8151 2814 8146
      2813 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 220DEG 14KT 2808 8169