Freeze Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EST SAT MAR 6 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS AND
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING NORTH AND AROUND 40 TO THE UPPER 40S
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM AROUND
70 NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 70S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ON SUNDAY...TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. SHORT WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
DURING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NATURE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST KEEPING WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGS OVER THE
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING BACK INTO FLORIDA. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO HAVE
GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...THEN TURNING
COOLER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID-WEST STATES. WILL MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6PM THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES SE ACROSS THE REGION. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE RAISED A WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  43  70  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  42  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  42  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  40  69  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  31  70  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  49  68  54  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
     LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
434 AM EST SAT MAR 6 2010

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-062145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
434 AM EST SAT MAR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...
AND A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 KNOTS DURING THIS
TIME WITH SEAS OF 7 FEET OR GREATER.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JILLSON