Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 19 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UP TO THE NORTHERN AL...WITH A TROUGH
FROM THE PIEDMONT DOWN TO CENTRAL GA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...A LITTLE LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A TROUGH FROM
THE EAST COAST OF FL TO TO LA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX WAS ABOUT
TO EMERGE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THIS FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WHILE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES
ALEX ASHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THEY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE 12 UTC GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM ALEX TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSES OFF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MASSIVE
RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A BIG INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN
LEAVING THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM
ALEX SEPARATE FROM OUR AREA. THE GFS MAY BE RIGHT BUT IT IS HARD
TO PICK SUCH AN OUTLIER. WE RELIED MORE ON THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR
THIS FORECAST...WHICH MEANS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAIN
CHANCES (AT AROUND 50 PERCENT) AND NEAR-CLIMO WINDS. OBVIOUSLY IF
THE GFS VERIFIES OUR REGION WILL BE MUCH WETTER WITH POTENTIAL
FLOODING. WE WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CLOSELY IN CASE WE
SEE SOME SORT OF VORTICITY MAX SPINNING OFF FROM ALEX...WHICH
WOULD BE A LATE INDICATOR THAT THE GFS WAS CORRECT. UNTIL
THEN...WE EXPECT NEAR-CLIMO TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
AVERAGE POP.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) EXPECT TO SEE THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE MOIST
TROPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE PERIPHERY OF
ALEX...SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. EXPECT GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS THIS FAR
OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO DRY THINGS OUT. LATEST ECMWF JUST COMING IN
SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RARITY OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES IN LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. ATTM...WILL CONTINUE THE GENERALLY
WET FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR VSBY/CIGS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT VLD AND ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR THE WIND FORECAST AS
THE CANADIAN AND GFS FORECAST WINDS APPEARED TOO HIGH IN
COMPARISON TO ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE SEAS FORECAST WAS
TRICKY. THE NOAA WAVEWATCH AND SWAN RUN OFF THE GFS FORECAST WINDS
PRODUCE HIGH SEAS...WHILE THE SWAN RUN OFF THE NAM HAD VERY LOW
SEAS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ITS WIND
SPEEDS...IT IS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT AT LEAST SOME LARGE SWELLS HAVE
BEEN (AND WILL BE) GENERATED BY ALEX. WE USED THE MEAN OF THE TWO
SWAN RUNS FOR THE SWELL AND SEAS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
ISSUES. GROWING SURF BY MID WEEK MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   75  91  74  91  74 /  20  50  20  50  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  76  87  76 /  20  40  20  50  30
DOTHAN        75  93  73  92  74 /  20  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        75  93  74  93  74 /  20  50  20  50  20
VALDOSTA      74  91  72  91  73 /  20  50  20  50  20
CROSS CITY    75  91  74  90  73 /  20  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  78  90  77  89  76 /  20  50  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-281000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
524 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010 /424 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY HELPING
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME A CONCERN BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ128-130-131-272215-
BEN HILL-IRWIN-TURNER-
524 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BEN HILL...IRWIN
AND TURNER COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MYSTIC...OR 11 MILES WEST
OF FITZGERALD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
539 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ125-272230-
DOUGHERTY-
539 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DOUGHERTY
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUTNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
543 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ123-272230-
CALHOUN-
543 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDISON...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ127-129-272230-
TIFT-WORTH-
548 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIFT AND WORTH
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TY TY...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SYLVESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

42-DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
558 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

ALZ069-FLZ011-272245-
HOUSTON-JACKSON-
458 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HOUSTON AND
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COTTONWOOD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

42-DVD