Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

...HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK INTO THE 100-105 RANGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
OVER THE CWA AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AND SHOW SOME MID-UPPER DRY AIR SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OR OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST COAST/GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITIES UP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD.

A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOWS THE MID 90
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EACH DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES
DROPPING TO AROUND 45-55 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
UPCOMING WEEKEND PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO A CENTRAL POSITION ALONG
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL PUT
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE RIDGE CENTER TO OUR WEST WILL LESSEN THE OVERALL SUPPRESSION...
AND THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES INTO OUR REGION
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PASSING IMPULSES TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S DURING THE DAY AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT. LAND BREEZES WILL FORCE A SCATTERING OF
OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING...WITH THE STORMS REDEVELOPING INLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCE (40-50%) POPS...WHICH ARE A
BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE JUNE.

SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK NORTH AND EASTWARD BUT
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
LIE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR COAST. ALL THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS AND A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SEA-BREEZE STORMS. OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED PULSE STRONG STORM...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN THE BENIGN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW BRIEF PERIODS WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CONVECTION DID GET OFF TO A FAIRLY
SLOW START ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO RAIN
AT ECP AS THE SW COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
INLAND. DESPITE THE SLOW START...HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL OFF TO THE NE...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GROW IN COVERAGE MORE QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE TIMED THE 4 HR CONVECTIVE TEMPOS
FROM SW TO NE AT THE TAF SITES...WITH ABY STARTING AS LATE AS 23
UTC...WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY OVER BY 03 UTC TONIGHT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH JUST A
BRIEF PERIOD OR 2 OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SAFELY
ABOVE RED FLAG LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   93  74  95  74  95 /  40  30  40  20  40
PANAMA CITY   91  77  93  78  93 /  60  20  40  20  30
DOTHAN        93  74  96  75  96 /  70  40  40  20  30
ALBANY        93  74  95  75  96 /  60  50  40  20  30
VALDOSTA      93  72  95  72  95 /  50  30  50  20  50
CROSS CITY    94  74  93  73  92 /  20  20  50  20  60
APALACHICOLA  91  77  92  78  92 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

GIBBS/GOULD/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
544 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-171000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010 /445 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/

...HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SPC HAS OUTLINED MOST OF OUR CWA (LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10) IN A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THESE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MEET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES 105 TO 108 ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND 100 TO 104 ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. STORMS WILL FADE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ALONG OUR
MARINE ZONE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
GRADUALLY EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

HARRIGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
612 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FLZ017-018-GAZ157-158-162315-
GRADY-INLAND JEFFERSON-LEON-THOMAS-
612 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN GRADY AND
THOMAS COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AS WELL AS NORTHERN LEON AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OCHLOCKNEE TO 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
615 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

ALZ065-066-162315-
COFFEE-DALE-
515 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COFFEE AND
SOUTHERN DALE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
ELBA TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OZARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

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