Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

.UPDATE...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LATEST RADAR LOOP
SHOWED A VERY HEAVY BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM VALDOSTA TO JUST EAST OF PANAMA CITY WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST INTO OUR SOUTHWEST GA AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...FLOODING HAS ALSO BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. 12 HOUR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE BIG BEND CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND UP TO AROUND 2 ADDITIONAL
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WHERE THE MORE
STABLE AIR IS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. REFER TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL DIMINISH FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS WILL STICK AROUND AFTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ONCE FOG LIFTS AND LOW CIGS BEGIN TO BREAK OUT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...CALHOUN...CLAY...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...IRWIN...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...
     RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

GIBBS/AUSTIN/BLOCK/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
942 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-221500-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
942 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010 /842 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...TORNADO WATCH FOR SRN GEORGIA...FL PANHANDLE...WRN MOST BIG BEND AND
ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL 10 AM EST (9 AM CST) TODAY...

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG PANHANDLE COAST...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND FL PANHANDLE...SE ALA AND NRN TIER
COUNTIES OF GA UNTIL 4 PM EST...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A VERY HEAVY BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THOMASVILLE TO PANAMA CITY THAT WAS
SHIFTING EAST AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ONE STORM NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF FAIR AND VERY MILD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THREATENS THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY OR MORE THAN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THE ISSUANCE OF THE FIRST
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

BLOCK/GIBBS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1133 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PANAMA CITY             30.17N 85.67W
01/21/2010                   BAY                FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING. CAR SWEPT INTO A DITCH AT
            SR77 AND 23RD ST. SCHOOL BUS ROLLOVER ON 17TH ST AND
            CAROLINA AVE. NO INJURIES.

&&

PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1136 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDVILLE           30.18N 84.37W
01/21/2010                   WAKULLA            FL   UTILITY COMPANY

            OVER 49000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER IN THE TALQUIN
            ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE SERVICE AREA, PRIMARILY IN WAKULLY
            COUNTY.

&&

PD