River Flood Warning 62, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FRINGES OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF HAVING A LOT OF LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN AL
COUNTIES. EXPECT THEM TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CELLS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND...AND HAIL.
MODELED THETA-E STILL SHOWS A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AS SEEN ON LOCAL METARS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERED CU FIELD...3 TO 6 K FT
...ACROSS THE REGION. CAPE ACROSS THE AREA IS AROUND 3000 TO 4000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT...ALSO KEY IN WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CALCULATED SOUNDING PWAT WAS 1.96 INCHES...WITH MODELED PWAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN HIGHER...AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. HIGHS WILL
PEAK IN THE MID TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
LOWER THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COVERAGE. HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO
THE LOW 100S...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG ONCE THE RAIN COVERAGE
BEGINS TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH THE STORMS
OVER LAND DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH
DAYS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE. LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE AND BEING
SCRUNCHED BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HIGHS...WHICH WILL KEEP ALL THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. FRIDAY THERE IS A SMALLER
THETA-E GRADIENT THAN THURSDAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS...THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS
FRIDAY IS LOWER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE IN THE LOWER
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GRADUALLY EVOLVES
EASTWARD...AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE. HOWEVER... THEIR EFFECT ON THE TRI-STATE AREA IS
LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE OF
THE RIDGE. EXPECT TO START OUT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND POPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 100 IN SOME INLAND AREAS...AND POPS
DECREASING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS
FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS RAISES THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED HIGHER GUSTS IN TEMPOS FOR THIS REASON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MOISTENING MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...THIS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ANY OF OUR TERMINALS
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE. DUE TO FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BIG BEND COASTLINE. EXPECT ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF
MODELS HOLD TRUE...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOMORROW. THIS COULD MEAN
THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST
TERMINALS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL RISE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO 4 TO 5 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   74  92  73  90  74 /  30  60  30  60  30
PANAMA CITY   78  89  76  86  77 /  30  50  30  60  30
DOTHAN        74  92  73  92  74 /  30  50  20  60  30
ALBANY        74  92  73  92  74 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      73  92  72  93  73 /  30  50  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    74  92  73  92  74 /  30  50  30  50  30
APALACHICOLA  77  89  77  87  78 /  30  50  30  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HARRIGAN/GODSEY
LONG TERM...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...M BARRY/MOORE/WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-160900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
451 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 /351 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF RAIN OR CLOUD COOLED AREAS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
DRYING ALOFT AND A VERY WARM MOIST LAYER AT THE SURFACE SUGGEST
A GREATER POTENTIAL THAN NORMAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS...WHICH ARE WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE GENERATED BY STRONGER STORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD EVEN APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WHILE GENERAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>