River Flood Warning 52, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE SLUGGISH UPPER LOW
AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN LOCALLY IS A
CONTINUATION OF DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS AS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS PULLS TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION
IS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN SPINNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING THIS FEATURE
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE GULF WITH ITS REMAINING ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN...THERE NOW IS A CONSENSUS IN THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW AND FOR NOW WILL NOT EXCEED LOWER END CHANCE
POPS. MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH MON.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE INITIAL UPPER LOW...OR WHAT'S LEFT
OF IT...WILL BE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE ENERGY CURRENTLY TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL HAVE DROPPED SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
TO A POSITION OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY 12Z THU. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN TRACK E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND OFF THE SC/GA COAST
BY THU NIGHT. THERE REALLY DOES NOT LOOK TO MUCH OF A SURFACE
REFLECTION TO THIS SYSTEM UNTIL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WED NIGHT AND
THU FOR LIGHT RAIN OUT OF A MID LEVEL DECK...WITH PRECIPITATION
EXITING E THU NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI PROVIDING A VERY NICE SPRING DAY.
UPSTREAM...THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS FRI INTO SAT. IN A FLIP-FLOP OF THE USUAL MODEL
TENDENCIES...THE 14/12Z ECMWF IS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z GFS TO BRING
THIS TROUGH E ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. SINCE THIS MODEL IS ALMOST
ALWAYS PREFERRED AT THESE TIME SCALES...PLAN TO USE IT FOR THE
TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM...UNLESS THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDS
SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD THE GFS TIMING. AS IT STANDS...THE ECMWF SHOWS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. THE GFS DELAYS THIS UNTIL SUN. AFTER
FROPA...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM TX SUN MORNING TO A
POSITION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON MON. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN AND WITH THE STRONG MID TO LATE MARCH SUN...TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ELEVATED AT SCEC LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BECOMING EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUE.
VFR CIGS (5-7 KFT) WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH BASES DROPPING TO 4-5 KFT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS (2K-3K FT) ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KDHN AND KABY FROM
12-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH TO DROP TO BETWEEN
33-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND...WITH 20-FT
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. THIS WILL BE A VERY MARGINAL EVENT...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WE EXPECT ONCE AGAIN WHICH PREVENTED
MOST AREAS FROM GETTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY. STILL...IT IS
TOO CLOSE TO GO WITHOUT A WARNING AND ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL FL
BIG BEND ZONES EXCEPT FRANKLIN. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUE...IT LOOKS AS
IF WE WILL SEE THE MINIMUM 4-HR DURATIONS REQUIRED FOR A WARNING IN
FL AND A WATCH WILL BE POSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   67 40 68 42 65/ 0 0 0 10 30
PANAMA CITY   66 45 66 48 65/ 0 0 0 10 30
DOTHAN        65 41 66 44 62/ 0 0 0 10 20
ALBANY        66 38 67 43 63/ 0 0 0 10 20
VALDOSTA      65 41 67 42 63/ 0 0 0 10 20
CROSS CITY    67 39 68 45 66/ 0 0 0 10 30
APALACHICOLA  66 44 64 47 63/ 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE
     FLORIDA BIG BEND EXCEPT FRANKLIN COUNTY DUE TO A COMBINATION
     OF LOW RH AND WINDS.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL FLORIDA ZONES
     DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WX...WOOL
PUBLIC/MARINE...BARRY

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