Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2010

River Flood Warning 49, NWS Tallahassee, FL

March 12, 20104 counties in Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this river flood warning at Mar 12, 2010, 2:56 AM CST for 4 counties in Florida. It was in force for 11 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 12, 2010, 2:56 AM CST (08:56 UTC)
Expired
Mar 23, 2010, 8:48 AM CDT
In force
11 days
Issued by
NWS Tallahassee, FL
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Liberty County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Apalachicola River near Blountstown (BLOF1).

Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
17 ft
Moderate stage
23.5 ft
Major stage
26 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02358700, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

244 
WGUS42 KTAE 120856
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... 

  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-130856-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FL.W.0049.100312T0856Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100313T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
356 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF
  THE BANK AT THE MARINA.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  15.3 FRI 12 AM   15.8   16.0   15.5   15.7   16.5     



$$
14 follow-up statements
045 
WGUS82 KTAE 121635
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING APALACHICOLA RIVER
   NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
   LIBERTY COUNTIES...
 
...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-131635-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100315T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1135 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.1 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  15.9 FRI 08 AM   17.1   17.9   18.1   17.8   17.1



$$
575 
WGUS82 KTAE 131508
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER 
   NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
   LIBERTY COUNTIES...
 
...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-141508-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100315T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE    WED    THU

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  17.0 SAT 08 AM   18.2   18.8   18.3   17.8   17.5



$$
242 
WGUS82 KTAE 141337
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-151337-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100315T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
937 AM EDT SUN MAR 14 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY 
  AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  18.6 SUN 09 AM   20.0   19.9   19.1   18.4   17.8



$$
209 
WGUS82 KTAE 151337
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-161337-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100315T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
937 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  19.8 MON 09 AM   19.6   18.8   18.0   16.7   16.5



$$
DUGGAN
937 
WGUS82 KTAE 161309
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
909 AM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-171309-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
909 AM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.6 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON MANY ROADS 
  INCLUDING BYRD PARKER ROAD...WARMOUTH DRIVE...GASKIN PARK...THE END OF LAKE 
  GROVE ROAD...ELM STREET ON RED BULL ISLAND AND LOWER LANDING ON HOWARDS CREEK.
  THE 22.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER 
  LEVELS IN THE THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND 
  SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.


&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  20.3 TUE 05 AM   19.1   17.7   16.3   16.2   16.5


$$
540 
WGUS82 KTAE 170219
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 

 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-180219-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100317T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TOMORROW.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON MANY ROADS 
  INCLUDING BYRD PARKER ROAD...WARMOUTH DRIVE...GASKIN PARK...THE END OF LAKE 
  GROVE ROAD...ELM STREET ON RED BULL ISLAND AND LOWER LANDING ON HOWARDS CREEK.
  THE 22.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER 
  LEVELS IN THE THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND 
  SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  20.5 TUE 09 PM   20.3   18.0   16.1   16.1   16.3



$$
914 
WGUS82 KTAE 171324
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
924 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-181324-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
924 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 18.2 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  20.3 WED 09 AM   18.2   15.8   15.7   16.1   16.5



$$
DUGGAN
857 
WGUS82 KTAE 180141
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 

...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-190141-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
941 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 17.5 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  20.1 WED 09 PM   19.7   17.5   16.0   16.2   16.5



$$
059 
WGUS82 KTAE 181332
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-191332-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100323T0600Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.100323T0000Z.NO/
932 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  19.8 THU 09 AM   18.1   16.8   16.7   16.2   14.4

$$
785 
WGUS82 KTAE 191428
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER 
   IN FLORIDA NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
   LIBERTY COUNTIES...
 
...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-201428-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100323T0515Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.100322T2315Z.NO/
1028 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  19.0 FRI 09 AM   16.9   16.1   16.2   14.1   13.9



$$
230 
WGUS82 KTAE 201438
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER 
   IN FLORIDA NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
   LIBERTY COUNTIES...
 
...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-211437-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100325T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.100324T1800Z.NO/
1037 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE    WED    THU

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  18.1 SAT 09 AM   17.2   16.3   15.6   15.1   14.8



$$
839 
WGUS82 KTAE 211454
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1054 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-221454-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1054 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 16.8 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR AT DOUGLAS LANDING 
  AND WILLIS LANDING CAMPGROUNDS.  THE 19.0 FT LEVEL AT BLOUNTSTOWN MAY AT TIMES
  NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF RIVER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS...
  WINDS OR LOCAL RAINFALL AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED    THU    FRI

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  17.6 SUN 09 AM   16.8   15.8   15.4   15.4   15.4



$$
366 
WGUS82 KTAE 221422
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1022 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES 

  AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT AFFECTING JEFFERSON...MADISON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES
 
 ...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...


SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-231422-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100324T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.100323T1800Z.NO/
1022 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF
  THE BANK AT THE MARINA.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  16.3 MON 05 AM   15.1   14.9   14.8   14.7   14.7



$$

FLC065-079-123-231421-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LAMF1.1.ER.100118T2000Z.100125T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1022 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 10.2 FEET.




&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

AUCILLA RIVER
  LAMONT         9  10.2 MON 09 AM   10.2   10.1   10.0    9.9    9.9



$$
236 
WGUS82 KTAE 231348
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EDT TUE MAR 23 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND 
  LIBERTY COUNTIES
 

SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE 
LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD 
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC013-037-045-077-231418-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100324T0000Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.100312T0154Z.100316T2100Z.100323T1120Z.NO/
948 AM EDT TUE MAR 23 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  7:20 AM TUESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 14.7 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF
  THE BANK AT THE MARINA.



&&
               FLD  OBSERVED         7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION       STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

APALACHICOLA RIVER
  BLOUNTSTOWN   15  14.9 TUE 09 AM   14.7   14.8   14.7   14.7   14.7



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 11, 8:48 PM CST, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 8:48 PM CST, 6 hours 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...01 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB SURFACE LOW
ABOUT NEAR DES MOINES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MID AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 60
DEGREE LINE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH MID 60S JUST OFFSHORE.
SURFACE DATA SHOW VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS LOUISIANA.

UPPER AIR DATA FROM 00 UTC SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 175KT 250 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN THE SOUNDING
FROM KTAE AT 250 MB SHOWED A WIND OF 153 KT WITH THE PEAK WIND IN
THE SOUNDING (164 KT) REPORTED AT 200 MB. VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
DATA SHOW A LOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS IOWA WITH
THE SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX. IT
IS THIS SECONDARY IMPULSE THAT SHOULD GET THINGS GOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT.

THE KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM 900 MB ON UP TO
600 MB. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS INDUCED
A CAPPING INVERSION AT 900 MB. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD AND WITH SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS
THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES...THIS LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST...VERY LITTLE IS
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN TONIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND KEEP IT ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVER TIME...AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS TEND TO AGREE THAT THIS
WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

AFTER SUNRISE THERE IS SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
UNFOLD. THE 11/09Z WRF WAS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY JUST CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 11/21Z
WRF HOWEVER SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WITH EVEN SOME
DECENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRESENT IN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY BY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE 11/18Z NAM.

AS FAR AS SEVERE CHANCES GO...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 50-55 KTS
BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS...WITH THE BULK OF THE FASTER
FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER. THUS...THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL
SEEMS RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE MODELS ARE
LATCHING ON TO SOME BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES.
THE GFS HAS BETTER INSTABILITY THAN ANY OF THE MODELS...MUCAPES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SREF DATA
DOES SHOW DECENT (30-50 PERCENT) PROBABILITIES OF THESE HIGHER
MUCAPE VALUES...SO THERE IS SOME SUPPORT OUTSIDE THE GFS FOR THESE
VALUES. THE REMAINING CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF A STABILIZING
IMPACT THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE ON CONVECTION. THIS IMPACT IS
ILLUSTRATED WELL IN THE LOCALLY RUN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WHICH SHOW
15% OR HIGHER SVR PROBS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. GIVEN BETTER
INSTABILITY PROFILES (AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS) PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING PARTICULARLY IF
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A SECONDARY THREAT AT THIS
TIME.

BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WILL GO AHEAD AND PLACE SOME
T+ WORDING IN THE GRIDS...BUT ONLY IN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS OF
SOUTH GEORGIA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW ACROSS THE
HEAVILY RAINED ON AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA AS A COUPLE OF MODELS DO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.

WILL BE MAKING A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT GRIDS...BUT
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT!

&&

AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE BRIEFLY IMPROVED TO VFR...EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF IFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND A THINNING CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IFR IN FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF...WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...
SPREADING ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SQUALL LINE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...WILL SEE CONDITIONS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THIS EVENING
AND TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALL ZONES.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 9:04 PM CST, 5 hours 52 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-120900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1004 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 /904 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN MOISTENS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AND COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN
THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE
MOVES EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS IF THESE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
INDIVIDUAL LINES. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE COOLER CONDITIONS...WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

GODSEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 12, 3:37 AM CSTSmall Craft AdvisoryTAE62 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2010Every river flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.