Red Flag Warning 79, NWS Tallahassee, FL

595 
WWUS82 KTAE 202338
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ TO 7
PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR JACKSON...GADSDEN...LEON...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.ONE MORE DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING ON TUESDAY FOR SEVERAL INTERIOR
COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA. FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL ON WEDNESDAY
ELIMINATING THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

FLZ011-016>018-212300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0079.100921T1900Z-100921T2300Z/
JACKSON-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
738 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010 /638 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ TUESDAY...

FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT
WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER SEVERAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS
IN NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

42-DVD

725 
WWUS82 KTAE 210815
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/
TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR JACKSON...GADSDEN...LEON...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY
ELIMINATING THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

FLZ011-016>018-212300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0079.100921T1900Z-100921T2300Z/
JACKSON-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010 /315 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

014 
WWUS82 KTAE 211820
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT TODAY FOR
JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE FORECAST FOR JACKSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY
ELIMINATING THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

FLZ016>018-211930-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0079.100921T1900Z-100921T2300Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE REACHED.

$$

FLZ011-212300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0079.100921T1900Z-100921T2300Z/
JACKSON-
120 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

BARRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL
KEEP OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
GRADUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH MIN
TEMPS JUST UNDER OR NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEY DO GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING UPPER
HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AND SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH OVER
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ITS WAKE...THESE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS FILLING BACK IN OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE
MARINE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS (EXCEPT FOR
AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON). WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KTLH AND
KDHN WILL BE THE ONLY TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR LINE UP BEST IN THESE
LOCATIONS. KABY AND KECP MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR JACKSON...
GADSDEN...LEON...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA. LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE FORECAST
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL ON
WEDNESDAY ELIMINATING THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   67 95 71 93 69/ 10 10 10 20 10
PANAMA CITY   73 92 74 92 72/ 10 10 10 20 10
DOTHAN        69 95 69 91 67/ 10 10 10 20 10
ALBANY        67 95 68 92 67/ 10 10 10 20 10
VALDOSTA      64 94 68 91 68/ 10 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY    65 94 68 92 68/ 10 20 10 20 10
APALACHICOLA  70 90 73 89 73/ 10 10 10 20 10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...
     INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JACKSON...GADSDEN...LEON...INLAND JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION/FIRE WX...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM/MARINE...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-210715-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
301 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2010 /201 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER