Red Flag Warning 76, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. AT 06Z THE BOUNDARY WAS
STRETCHED ROUGHLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH GA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST AL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
MID 70S. THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS WAS
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
LOCAL REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BUT WILL BE MORE TOLERABLE WITH THE
LOWER HUMIDITY. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT COMMENCES IN NRN STREAM WITH
RIDGE OVER WRN STATES...TROUGHING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION...WEAK
RIDGE OVER ERN STATES AND A TROUGH ACROSS EXTREME WRN ATLC. SRN
STREAM MARKED BY FLAT RIDGE FROM BAJA CA EWD INTO WRN ATLC. LARGE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS KEEPING OUR
WEATHER DRY AND PRETTY WARM. AT SURFACE...LOW OVER SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH STATIONARY FRONT E THEN SE ACROSS N GA...AND A COLD
FRONT SWWD INTO OK. SOUTH OF STATIONARY FRONT...RIDGING FROM WRN
ATLC WSW ACROSS NE GULF. THUS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS NE
GULF.

SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODELS SEEN BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NRN ALA/GA. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH ECMWF STALLING
FRONT THERE WHILE GFS BRINGS IT INTO CNTRL AL/GA. IN EITHER CASE...
TROUGH THEN EXITS INTO ATLC WITH DEAMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN REST OF
EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTED BY PASSING IMPULSES MOVING EWD IN INCREASINGLY
ZONAL FLOW IN NRN STREAM. THIS TRANSLATES TO DECREASING DYNAMICS
WHICH ALLOWS FRONT TO STALL AND THEN WASH OUT. SO...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF CWA WITH AXIS WSW OVER LOCAL AREA
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TRANSLATES TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRAVERSING LAND SO MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

EVEN MORE MODEL DIVERGENCE DAY BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
A NOTABLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE THAN GFS AND IF THIS PANS OUT...IT
COULD ALLOW STRONG HURRICANE IGOR TO EDGE CLOSER TO SE COAST WITH
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING WWD INTO CWA BY LATE DAY 7. CONVERSELY..GFS
KEEPS STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EAST COAST AND ADJACENT ATLC EVEN
REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER GULF REGION FRI-SUN. IN GFS SCENARIO
THUS IGOR TURNS WELL EAST OF COASTLINE. BASED ON PREV RUNS...WILL
LEAN TOWARDS GFS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXCEEDINGLY HIGH.

WILL GO WITH NIL POPS THUR SAT NIGHT THEN WDLY SCT POPS SUN-MON.
WITH LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...67-70 DEGREE LOWS AND 90 TO 93
DEGREE HIGHS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING AN
EASTERLY FLOW TO SET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST A BIT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 06Z TUES...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
VSBYS THRU 13Z AT KVLD AND POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS 09Z-13Z AT KTLH.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CU FIELD IS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT NLY FLOW
EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH 14Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT IMPACTING MAINLY THE FL PANHANDLE. FIRE WX WATCH
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING BUT BASED ON GRIDS TRIMMED BACK TO
INCLUDE ONLY LIBERTY AND GADSDEN COUNTIES IN BIG BEND. HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE SO INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   94 71 93 67 92/ 0 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY   92 73 92 72 91/ 0 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN        93 67 91 66 90/ 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY        92 66 91 64 91/ 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA      92 68 91 64 91/ 0 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY    94 69 92 64 91/ 0 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA  92 75 89 71 89/ 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR
     PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND LIBERTY AND GADSDEN
     COUNTIES OF THE WESTERN BIG BEND.
GM...NONE.

&&

BARRY/BLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-132100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
312 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010 /212 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AIDE THE SPREAD OF ANY
WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BARRY