Red Flag Warning 75, NWS Tallahassee, FL

443 
WWUS82 KTAE 061809
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES THAT
WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

FLZ007-009-011-016-061915-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0075.000000T0000Z-100906T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON-GADSDEN-
209 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2010 /109 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES THAT
WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AS OF 11 PM EDT ON SUNDAY EVENING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
#10 HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...BASICALLY IN
NORTHWESTERN AREA OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FCST TRACK
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES TD #10 ON A NORTH THEN N-NW
TRACK INTO NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND DOES STRENGTHEN IT INTO A
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
POSSIBLE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL LATER IN THE WEEK INTO OUR MARINE
AREA...AS WELL AS SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS IF THE WINDS ALOFT REMAINED
OUT OF THE SW. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS MAY REGAIN MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WHICH WOULD DETER
THIS POTENTIAL. OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS A FAIRLY
SHARP SFC DEWPOINT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA (AROUND 60 TO THE N
AND W...AND MID 70S TO THE S AND E)) AND WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS SLOWED IN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS
ON SUNDAY. THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE EVEN
MORE REMARKABLE...WITH 1.95" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TAE'S 00 UTC
SOUNDING COMPARED TO 0.56 AND 0.36 ON BMX'S AND FFC'S VALUES
RESPECTIVELY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ESSENTIALLY STALLED IN OR JUST TO THE N OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS ARE STILL GENERALLY VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE SE OR ESE...WITH 1
TO 2 FT SEAS AR BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...POPS WILL BE THE GREATEST
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING
APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO WIN OUT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN...AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE POISED TO
PUSH IN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AM
FINDING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO BUY INTO ANY OF THE HIGHER POP
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD (ESPECIALLY THE VERY HIGH MET POPS FOR THE
SE BIG BEND ON TUES DUE TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE NAM'S OVERDOING OF
A SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE ATLANTIC). THEREFORE...
UNLESS THE GFS...ECMWF OR ANY OF OUR FUTURE LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN THE ONE THAT IS APPEARING TO BE MOST
LIKELY...WILL PLAN ON ESSENTIALLY LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE BOARD
EACH DAY...AND KEEPING TEMPS ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN AND GAINS A STRONG FOOTHOLD. WITH OUT RECORD TYING HOT
SUMMER FOR TALLAHASSEE...WHY WOULD BE NOT EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN INTO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER
(WHICH IS NOW GETTING TO THE POINT WHERE HIGHS ARE 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO IN MANY LOCATIONS). FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TALLAHASSEE WILL BE SAFE...AS THEY ARE 97...98...AND 98 FOR
TODAY...TUES...AND WED. APALACHICOLA WILL LIKELY BE SAFE AS
WELL...BUT IF WINDS WERE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME
DURING THE 3 AFTERNOON'S...IT COULD BE A BIT CLOSE...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY WHERE THE RECORD IS ONLY 94 (TODAY IS 96 AND WED IS 95).

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AND AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SUMMERY PATTERN WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (LOWER/MIDDLE 90S)...AND JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING POPS BACK TOWARD CLIMO VALUES IN
THE 30-40% CHANCE RANGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GFS STILL KEEPS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER AND WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID.
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEDGE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN A "BACK-DOOR" COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
IF THIS WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WOULD BE
ARRIVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...AND SEE IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND DRIER WITH FUTURE FORECAST RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR HAS ARRIVED
ACROSS KDHN AND KABY AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT VIS
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL HANGING ON
FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS AT KECP AND KTLH
AROUND SUNRISE. KVLD DROPPED INTO MVFR VIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEM DROPPING FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY EARLY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE GONE BETWEEN 13-14Z...AND ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
DISSIPATES AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH...A GENERAL
EASTERLY REGIME WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES SHOULD RETURN TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SURGES OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...AND A BLEND OF THE STRONGER IN
MAGNITUDE NAM12 AND WEAKER GFS40 LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AT
THIS TIME...AND WITH SOME NEW CAPABILITIES ADDED BY OUR GFE AND SWAN
PROGRAMMERS...WE ARE NOW ALSO ABLE TO BLEND THE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED
ON A GFS/NAM BLEND AS WELL WHICH IS VERY USEFUL AND CONVENIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECTING RH
VALUES TO DROP BELOW 30% FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND TO THE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA.
DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED. FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA...RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ALONG AND NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR. IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE...BUT APPEARS THAT ZONES ALONG THE
GA/AL BORDER FROM GADSDEN COUNTY WESTWARD WILL HAVE A SHOT AT 4 HOUR
DURATIONS WITH RH BELOW 35%. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL RAISE A RED FLAG
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON OR THESE INLAND ZONES. A SLOW RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   94  70  94  70  94 /  10   0  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   91  73  91  73  92 /  10  10  10   0  10
DOTHAN        94  67  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        94  67  94  68  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
VALDOSTA      93  68  94  69  94 /  10   0  10  10  20
CROSS CITY    93  70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
APALACHICOLA  91  75  90  75  89 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING NORTHERN WALTON...HOLMES...GADSDEN..AND
     JACKSON COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-071200-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
405 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010 /305 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND ALLOW SOME
OF THE MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY STILL RECEIVE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT WILL
STILL REMAIN HOT...HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

17-GOULD