Red Flag Warning 68, NWS Tallahassee, FL

785 
WWUS82 KTAE 100020
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND
HAS EXPIRED...

...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1PM CDT/ UNTIL 7 PM EDT/6 PM
CDT/ MONDAY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND FLORIDA BIG BEND FOR EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.ENOUGH DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY TO MEET DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND INLAND
AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AND AFTER MONDAY...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FLZ007-009-011-013-016>019-026-028-029-034-102300-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0067.000000T0000Z-100510T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0068.100510T1800Z-100510T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
INLAND DIXIE-
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010 /720 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS SUNDAY EVENING...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FLZ008-010-012-014-015-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-100130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0067.000000T0000Z-100510T0000Z/
CENTRAL WALTON-WASHINGTON-INLAND BAY-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-
INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010 /720 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS SUNDAY EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

BARRY

494 
WWUS82 KTAE 100813
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER 
THAN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA ZONES NORTH OF I-10 WILL SEE 
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS. 
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

FLZ007-009-011-013-016>019-026-028-029-034-102300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0068.100510T1800Z-100510T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
INLAND DIXIE-
413 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 /313 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAMP

975 
WWUS82 KTAE 102019
RFWTAE

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

.LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE 35
PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. CRITICAL FOUR HOUR DURATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

FLZ007-009-011-013-016>019-026-028-029-034-102130-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0068.000000T0000Z-100510T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
INLAND DIXIE-
419 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 /319 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

$$

BLOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 PM EDT...SUNNY SKIES DOMINATED THE LOCAL REGION. TEMPS/DEW
POINTS RANGED FROM MID 70S/MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 80/MID 40S
AT THE COAST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NLY 7-11 MPH.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW CONUS PATTERN CONTINUES. THE NRN STREAM
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST...RIDGING FROM
INTERMOUNTAIN TO NRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NE STATES/CANADA
WITH A LARGE 529DM COLD CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER NE MAINE/QUEBEC.
CONVERSELY...SRN STREAM DOMINATED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW INCLUDING OVER
NE GULF REGION THAT OVERLAYS TOP OF A SPRAWLING REGION OF UPPER
RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINLAND MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD NWD THIS AFTN. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NE MS/NW ALA IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD GA THIS EVE. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS SIMPLY
TOO WEAK AND LOCAL ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS FOR OUR
REGION.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WRN TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TONIGHT
CROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY...THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MON
AND TO MIDWEST MON NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING
EASTWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE BROAD LIFT
OVER A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHERN/MIDDLE MS VALLEYS. LOOKING SOUTH...H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BUILD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
SRN FL/ADJACENT GULF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE WITH
RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CP AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN ON NORTHERLY WINDS. REGIONAL MAP SHOWS
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS SE BIG BEND AND DOWN TO MID 30S
ACROSS SRN ALA.

LOW DEVELOPING OVER SRN PLAINS TONIGHT PUSHES SURFACE HIGH EWD
TO MID-ATLC COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO WRN ATLC TUESDAY ALLOWING A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO SHIFTS NWD AND APPROACH OUR WRN CWA. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON BRINGING BOUNDARY NEAR CWA.
LOCALLY THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER PROVIDING MINOR LOW LEVEL WAA AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LIFT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LOW TOP SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ZONES/SE ALABAMA. THIS REFLECTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 0/65 PWAT AT 18Z SUN INCREASING TO 1.25
INCH AT 18Z MON AND 1.41 INCH AT 18Z TUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE DRY
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER GOING. LIGHT WINDS...A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND. LOWS AROUND 80 AT THE
COAST. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

TUESDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FL PANHANDLE ZONES/SE ALABAMA IN AFTN. SO 20% POP THERE.
IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD SHIFT NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE GULF UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD/AMPLIFY NORTHWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUES WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES.  LOWS FROM LOW 60S SE BIG BEND TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY... EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH GA/AL THROUGH PERIOD WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST...WITH LOW
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH A COOLER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY...BECOME NEAR CALM MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET...THEN EASTERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS ON MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH...MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN AN
EASTERLY SURGE OF WINDS TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY BEYOND 40NM FROM SHORE. AFTER ONCE AGAIN
DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SURGE IS LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT FLOOD OR ACTION STAGE AFTER THE HEAVY
RAINS OF LAST WEEK. MOST OF THESE RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE ON A
SLOW DECLINE. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THESE DECLINES IN STAGE ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY TO MEET DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOME INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AN MORE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...AND AFTER MONDAY...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   53  84  63  86  63/ 0   0   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   62  80  67  82  70/ 0   0  10  20  10
DOTHAN        54  83  63  86  66/ 0   0  10  20  10
ALBANY        53  83  62  86  66/ 0   0  10  20  10
VALDOSTA      53  83  61  87  63/ 0   0   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    56  85  61  87  63/ 0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  58  81  66  83  68/ 0   0  10  10  10

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR ALL ZONES.

     RED FLAG WARNING FOR MON AFTN FOR INLAND BIG BEND AND PORTIONS
     OF INLAND PANHANDLE.

GM...NONE.

&&

BLOCK/DUVAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-101000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010 /317 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL AID THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

14-MROCZKA