Red Flag Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) RELATIVELY BENIGN WX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN EVEN MORE DRY AIR
TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW WITH A FEW UPPER 80S IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH MOST MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE EXITING
TO OUR EAST TO MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCES AND GRADUALLY INCREASES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG WITH A DECENT VORT MAX TRANSLATING FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
EAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TO GIVE US A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAY STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW SLIGHT TO LOWER END CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MAINLY
AFFECT KTLH AND KVLD. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY SUNSET TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED CIRRUS DECK WILL MOVE OVER OUR TERMINALS
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT KDHN. DUE TO THE LATER INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER KVLD...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON THE CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER ALL
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS
A RESULT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
COUNTIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   57  86  56  86  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
PANAMA CITY   63  83  62  83  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
DOTHAN        59  84  53  85  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
ALBANY        58  85  52  84  50 /   0  20  10   0   0
VALDOSTA      56  84  55  84  49 /   0  20  10   0   0
CROSS CITY    55  83  56  85  50 /   0  10  10   0   0
APALACHICOLA  63  80  63  80  60 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL
     WALTON...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND JEFFERSON...
     INLAND TAYLOR...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...
     GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND GULF...INLAND
     JEFFERSON...INLAND TAYLOR...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
FIRE WX...GIBBS
LONG TERM...T BARRY