Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2010
Mesoscale Discussion 921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2010, 12:58 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2010, 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2010, 3:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties
New Castle County, DE, Cecil County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -247 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 594 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
885
ACUS11 KWNS 131658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131658
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-131900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...NJ...AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131658Z - 131900Z
THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F IS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. THIS IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SLOWLY
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AIDED BY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE RATHER WARM...WHICH MAY MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING...AND 30-35 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PERHAPS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR SMALL STORM CLUSTER ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE WIND
GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR ALLENTOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...BETWEEN NOW AND
18-20Z.
..KERR.. 06/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40767563 41477502 41407481 40807441 40237417 39697431
39417472 39517548 39577609 40107643 40487614 40767563Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2010Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2010Mesoscale Discussions in Delaware, 2010Every mesoscale discussion in 2010
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.