Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2010

Mesoscale Discussion 1069

June 21, 20104 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2010, 11:15 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2010, 11:15 PM CDT (04:15 UTC)
Expired
Jun 22, 2010, 12:45 AM CDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 47 counties

Adams County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Worth County, MO, Cass County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2010-06-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3501 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2010-06-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3501 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1328 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.6
Supercell composite
14.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

013 
ACUS11 KWNS 220416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220415
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...

VALID 220415Z - 220545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371
CONTINUES.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW.

AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN TROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOCUSED IN A BAND STRADDLING
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
AND SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE PLAINS RIDGE COULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA DURING THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  IF
THIS OCCURS...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF
2000-3000+ J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40629758 41479639 41079471 39849337 38959463 39029577
            39609734 40629758

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Cedar, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 15 more60 min
Jun 21, 9:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDes Moines, Lee, Van Buren7 hr
Jun 22, 1:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Carroll and 30 more6 hr
Jun 22, 4:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Boone, Clarke, Dallas, Davis, Decatur and 27 more57 min
Jun 22, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Crawford, Fremont, Harrison, Ida, Mills and 6 more23 min
Jun 22, 6:30 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHarrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, Shelby6 hr
Jun 21, 10:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Logan and 11 more6 hr
Jun 22, 3:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham and 20 more66 min
Jun 22, 3:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Clark, Decatur, Finney, Ford, Gove and 25 more7 hr
Jun 22, 6:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Decatur, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove and 26 more88 min
Jun 22, 10:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLewis, Marion, Pike, Ralls57 min
Jun 21, 7:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanner, Box Butte, Dawes, Scotts Bluff, Sioux93 min
Jun 22, 4:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Banner, Box Butte, Chase, Cheyenne, Dawes and 9 more83 min
Jun 22, 5:03 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArthur, Banner, Box Butte, Cherry, Cheyenne, Dawes and 12 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2010Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2010Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2010Every mesoscale discussion in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.