Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
959 AM MDT SUN AUG 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING INTO
UTAH FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHWEST UTAH THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON/OREGON
PER 12Z 700MB ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND
SWEEP ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH...ALBEIT A BIT MORE STINGY THAN
PREVIOUS MODELS SUGGESTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY
NEAR AN INCH NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH BETWEEN 0.60-0.80 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH. LATEST MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL MAX OUT AROUND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH AND AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS PATIENTLY OVER NORTHWEST UTAH AT THIS TIME
WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH IT ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SALT LAKE AND
TOOELE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VALLEYS.

STILL EXPECT GOOD CONVERGENCE-DIVERGENCE COUPLET AROUND
00Z...ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR OF 60-70 KNOTS AS THE JET MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. ISOLATED SEVERE OR NEAR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVER THE SOUTH EXPECT ENOUGH WINDS TO KEEP STORMS MOVING
ALONG...HOWEVER IF TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS OR IF STORMS TRACK
DOWN DRAINAGES OCCUR...THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS STILL A REAL POSSIBILITY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOOD CALL ON MID SHIFT AND REMAINDER OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PORTION OF
THE GREAT SALT LAKE WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON...THEN
SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST AT THE KSLC TERMINAL UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
01-03Z THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT STARTING MIDDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDERSTORMS HAVING A
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL UNTIL THE 22-03Z WINDOW. WILL PLACE A
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL IN THAT TIMEFRAME. STRONG ERRATIC WINDS LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NW THIS MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON. GUSTY...AND AT TIME
STRONG...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE WRN FIRE DISTRICTS. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE WRN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE REMAIN
ELEVATED BY RECENT RAINFALL...SO WILL NOT USE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE SOLID MOISTURE SURGE IN PROGRESS ACROSS S/CNTRL THROUGH ERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEVEL OFF
LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. WETTING RAINS LIKELY WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS CONCENTRATE....ESPECIALLY IN THE DISTRICTS NEAR THE
UT/AZ BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UTAH AT TIME WILL PRESS SOUTH INTO EXTREME
SRN UTAH MONDAY. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE OVER SRN/ERN UTAH WILL BE PINNED
FURTHER SOUTH BY THE ADVANCING FRONT...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ALONG THE OLD SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE UT/AZ BORDER AND IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ013-019>021-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC..................YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
510 AM MDT SUN AUG 22 2010

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-231200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
510 AM MDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS DRY
WASHES AND SLOT CANYONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL SWEEP OUT THE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH ON
MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED
DRYING IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

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