Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
UTAH AT THIS TIME. UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST POPS IN WEST CENTRAL
UTAH AND SKY GRIDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
VIRGIN RIVER. CURRENT HYDROGRAPH ON THE VIRGIN RIVER AT SPRINGDALE
IS AT 300 CFS...WHICH IS DOWN FROM THE PEAK OF 1523 CFS AROUND 645
AM. BARRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE DRAINAGE...THE VIRGIN
RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

SPC SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. AM CONCERNED MODELS ARE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF STABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
RAIN-COOLED AIR/CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. 12Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDING FOR SGU INDICATE CIN WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN INSTABILITY..SHEAR..AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS OUT FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT KSLC WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVING THE GREATEST
INFLUENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS
THAT SHOWERS AND/OR SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 16 AND 1730Z. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACT POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE TO 20 PERCENT AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF
NORTHERN UTAH NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERAL
WETTING RAINS OF 0.10 TO 0.30 OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A DRIER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS INTO FRIDAY.

A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL
BRING A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WESTERN
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SATURDAY FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOME
WESTERN VALLEYS. MOISTURE RETURNS RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY SO EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WILL HAVE TOO HIGH OF RH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ012>014-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
516 AM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-201200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
516 AM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.
THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THESE
WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING THEN END.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS WILL DRY
OUT THE NORTH AGAIN WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
114 PM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

UTZ013-192000-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL UT-
114 PM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EMERY AND
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 108 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF HANKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS EAST OF GOBLIN VALLEY
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN EMERY COUNTY...

OFFICIALS AT GOBLIN VALLEY STATE PARK REPORTED WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3844 11001 3841 11000 3842 11051 3869 11052
      3870 11008 3867 11008 3865 11003 3861 11002
      3861 10998 3851 10999 3850 11003 3847 10999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 270DEG 29KT 3851 11037

CRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
126 PM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DRAPER                  40.50N 111.86W
08/19/2010  M1.03 INCH       SALT LAKE          UT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE FIRST .85 INCHES IN 14 MINUTES. BASEMENT FLOODING.

&&

MCONGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
137 PM MDT THU AUG 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAPITOL REEF NP         38.28N 111.20W
08/19/2010                   WAYNE              UT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES OF RAIN /1.50/ IN 45 MINUTES.
            FLASH FLOODING ACROSS STATE ROUTE 24.

&&

MCONGER

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