Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1055 AM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DRYER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH...OVER CENTRAL UTAH.  SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE STILL
PRESENT OVER EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF UTAH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH...REMAINS IN PLACE.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
OVER CENTRAL UTAH...SHOULD FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS...SO ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD NEED TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CELLS TRAINING ACROSS AN AREA.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WITH SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 40 KTS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO REGION...ANY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY.

WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 19Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT FOR
ERRATIC WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS MOISTURE
TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MOST OF UTAH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL SWEEP MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1236 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

UTZ020-518-161900-
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH UT-SOUTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS UT-
1236 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM MDT...

AT 1228 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ESCALANTE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   ESCALANTE...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3796 11120 3771 11115 3767 11173 3784 11177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 260DEG 20KT 3777 11164

YOUNG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
136 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

UTZ013-020-518-162000-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL UT-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH UT-SOUTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS UT-
136 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM MDT...

AT 127 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOULDER...OR 17 MILES EAST
OF ESCALANTE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3772 11137 3790 11137 3796 11084 3768 11081
      3768 11084 3767 11083 3766 11084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 270DEG 16KT 3781 11126

YOUNG