Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

071 
WGUS75 KSLC 180117
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
717 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

UTC025-180215-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-101018T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-
717 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL KANE COUNTY...

AT 708 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE WARNED AREA. 

HEAVY RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PARK WASH THROUGH 815 PM. 
ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA MAY ENHANCE RUNOFF 
LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. ALSO AVOID LOW WATER CROSSINGS ALONG THE PARK WASH 
ROAD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHERE FLASH FLOODING CAN REMAIN UNSEEN 
UNTIL IT STRIKES YOUR LOCATION. 

&&

LAT...LON 3742 11221 3750 11203 3716 11206 3711 11213

$$

CONGER

723 
WGUS75 KSLC 180216
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
816 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

UTC025-180226-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-101018T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-
816 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL KANE COUNTY...

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS PEAKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO FOR THE 
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3742 11221 3750 11203 3716 11206 3711 11213

$$

CONGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
332 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TO NORTHERN BAJA BY TUESDAY THEN
EAST INTO NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THEN DRYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND CENTRAL AREAS BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNDER THE
DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ORIENTED FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST
NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT ELY NEVADA TO THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THESE TWO
AREAS HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. THIS WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP NORTH OF I-80 WHILE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS.

THE ISSUE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS THE EXACT TRACK THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE
FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE EC...THE LESSER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
AT LOW OR MID LEVELS WILL CERTAINLY BRING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS
TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH AND THEREFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
HAVE KIND OF LEANED THIS WAY BUT IF THE LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF
ARIZONA THEN WE SHOULD SEE BETTER CONDITIONS THAN FORECAST.

THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE EC IN SLIDING THE LOW TOWARDS NEW
MEXICO BUT IT TOO HAS COME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION.
BOTH MODELS SHOW A KICKER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY
BUT THE EC IS CONSIDERABLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND THEREFORE THE
SLOWER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EC TROUGH WHILE THE WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION WOULD CREATE MORE SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

IN THE LONG TERM...DAY 7...THE EC SHOWS A STRONG ZONAL FLOW
PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A
STRONG FLOW IT IS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC LOOKING WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE
POSITION TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GFS WIN HERE AS SO OFTEN THE CASE THE
HEIGHTS ON EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN TREND UPWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS NEAR 7000 FT COULD DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 22Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS...IF THEY DEVELOP...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
450 AM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-181100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
450 AM MDT SUN OCT 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOST PRONE
DRAINAGES AND SLOT CANYONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTION OF UTAH ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOST PRONE
DRAINAGES AND SLOT CANYONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH MAINLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)