Tornado Warning 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
HEARTLAND NEAR BROWNWOOD SOUTHWEST TOWARDS SONORA. WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 06Z FOR NOW. BIGGEST CONCERN IS AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BIG COUNTRY SOUTHWEST INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY....WHERE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE FALLEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHER TOTALS EMBEDDED.

MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL TAKE THE BEST LIFT AND SHEAR WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE UNCAPPED AIR MASS PREVAILS. EXPECT TO
SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AGAIN PROVIDING THE BEST
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS
WELL...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS. IF MCS DEVELOPS...WILL TRACK EAST BACK
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR
TOMORROW...AS IF AND WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE. GFS SHOWS THE MCS FROM TONIGHT STILL IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK...SO THIS SEEMS AS GOOD AS ANYPLACE TO HAVE THE
BEST POPS.

.LONG TERM...
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL. MAY BE MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 64  80  62  85  62 /  70  40  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO 	 65  82  61  87  65 /  60  40  30  20  20
JUNCTION 	 67  86  65  87  64 /  60  40  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...FISHER...HASKELL...JONES...NOLAN...
RUNNELS...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON.

&&

21/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
154 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161900-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
154 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD LINE...FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN...THEN
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO
THE EARLIER RAINFALL THAT HAS NOW SATURATED THE SOILS...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TXZ072-073-077-168-152045-
TOM GREEN TX-CONCHO TX-SCHLEICHER TX-MENARD TX-
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR TOM
GREEN...CONCHO...SCHLEICHER AND MENARD COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EDEN...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LIVE OAK BY 300 PM CDT
  US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE BY 305 PM CDT
  EDEN BY 315 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TXZ073-077-154-168-152130-
CONCHO TX-MCCULLOCH TX-SCHLEICHER TX-MENARD TX-
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
CONCHO...MCCULLOCH...SCHLEICHER AND MENARD COUNTIES...

AT 319 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MENARD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-CONCHO COUNTY LINE BY 335 PM CDT
  MELVIN BY 420 PM CDT
  BRADY LAKE BY 430 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

18

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