Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERE STORMS READY TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF MOVING ACROSS
THE KABI TERMINAL BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER AND LARGE
HAIL. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010/

UPDATE...
SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #178 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST WEST OF A GUTHRIE TO
ASPERMONT LINE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010/

DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

AVIATION...
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SATURATED THEIR DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S AT 11Z OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES. HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SITUATION LIKE IN SWEETWATER AND BROWNWOOD WHERE
VISIBILITIES PLUMMETED TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE IN FOG.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCE
THIS EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SE FROM THE
PANHANDLE OR PERMIAN BASIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE BROUGHT IN
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 10Z AT KSJT...KBBD...AND KJCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010/

SHORT TERM...

MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES WITH NAM AND GFS INDICATING
CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP. WHILE STORMS
LOOK ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A NORTHWEST FLOW MCS THIS
EVENING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING
THEM EAST/SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. ALSO...COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR ABILENE
THIS MORNING.

04

LONG TERM...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE
CONUS THIS WEEK WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS MID LEVEL
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE SJT FCST
AREA TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE GFS SHOWS
BASICALLY PARALLEL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION FROM THE PANHANDLE TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TX AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES. A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY
KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER IF ANY STORM FORMS IT
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND MAY ALSO FOCUS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK
ON INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY OVER W CENTRAL TX WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 90S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 87  64  85  67  91 /  30  30  20  20  20
SAN ANGELO 	 89  65  88  68  91 /  30  40  20  10  10
JUNCTION 	 89  67  87  68  89 /  20  30  20  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-181645-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...REACHING THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND LATER TODAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE REGION...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
856 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MASON                   30.75N 99.23W
05/15/2010                   MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** THE DAMAGE WAS FROM MASON TO 2 MILES NORTH
            OF MASON. NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. AN AUCTION RING
            BUILDING WAS DAMAGED IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF MASON.

&&

MC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>