Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST NAM AND RUC 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS INDICATE WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
TODAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION NEAR SWEETWATER. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY CONTINUE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE TERMINALS UNTIL 18Z.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE EASTWARD MOVING
SURFACE LOW.

23/HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST WSR-88D DATA INDICATE MAIN AREA OF CONTINUED SHOWERS HAS
SHIFTED NORTH INTO OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONCHO
VALLEY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EAST AS THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE
DAY TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR COUNTIES. GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...POPS CLOSER TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MEX MOS GUIDANCE LOOK
BEST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WORDING IN
THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO...LIMITED SUNSHINE AND WEAK SURFACE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
AND HEARTLAND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
FARTHER EAST. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.

23/HUBER

LONG TERM...
NAM AND GFS MODELS KEEP 700 MB LAYER AND BELOW...NEARLY SATURATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND 850 MB LAYER AND BELOW...SATURATED INTO
TUESDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE AS IT HEADS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO...HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THINS OUT WEDNESDAY...SO HOPEFULLY THE
SUN WILL BREAK OUT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN FAIR GOOD
CONSENSUS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...IN DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND GOOD
SHEAR...BUT STILL A WAYS OUT ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 63  49  61  47  63 /  90  40  30  20  10
SAN ANGELO 	 66  48  66  48  65 /  50  30  10  10  10
JUNCTION 	 72  48  68  50  67 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/HUBER

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