Tornado Warning 53, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE REMAINED JUST
WEST OF OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES TODAY AS THIS HAS BEEN WHERE THE
IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM TRACK. TORNADO WATCH #704 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
COUNTIES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS NE TX INTO SE OK. STILL
WATCHING STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST FROM DEEP SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
INITIALLY SUCH THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD FEEL MORE OF AN
EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE LATER THIS EVENING TO NUDGE THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR NW ZONES
OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT TSTM COVERAGE WILL
WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME WEST AND NORTHWEST
ZONES AS THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST BULK SHEAR
RESIDES NOT TO MENTION INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE ASSUMING THAT DEVELOPING CONVECTION DOES NOT
OUTRUN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO STABILIZE
SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER A WARM NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK UPSTREAM DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ITSELF BEGINS TO FILL AND KICK
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY. WE MAY BE DEALING
WITH SOME ELEVATED SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING BUT FEEL
LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. DEEPER CONVECTION...ROOTED MORE TOWARDS
THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MUCH LIKE TODAY TO OUR WEST...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS BUT IF ANY
DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SRH VALUES IN THE 0-1 AND 0-3 KM
LAYERS.

WE REMAIN IN STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE REGION AND
RETURN OUR TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH A BKN CU FIELD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND N THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER SRN/ERN OK AND THROUGH MUCH OF N TX WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ENE INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR/E TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT NE
ACROSS N TX/SE OK THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT AFFECT THE
TYR TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND THE TXK TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CB/S IN FOR GGG...ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE BY EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFTER 06Z AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS E
TX/SW AR/NW LA OVERNIGHT. A 25-30KT SSWRLY LLJ WILL YIELD VARIOUS MVFR
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MAINLY AFTER 06Z...AND WILL NOT LIFT
UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS SE
OK/NE TX/SW AR AFTER 18Z...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TRANSLATE E ACROSS THE REGION. SSE WINDS AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS ACROSS E TX/NW LA/SW AR...BUT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
5-10KTS ACROSS NCNTRL LA. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  86  67  87  70 /  30  50  50  20  10
MLU  61  87  65  87  71 /  10  30  50  20  10
DEQ  64  82  61  85  61 /  70  50  60  20  20
TXK  66  84  66  86  65 /  50  50  60  20  20
ELD  62  85  65  85  68 /  20  50  60  20  10
TYR  68  86  68  87  68 /  60  50  50  20  10
GGG  67  86  67  87  68 /  50  50  50  20  10
LFK  67  88  67  88  72 /  20  30  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WINDS ARE STRONG IN THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND AS A RESULT...THERE
WILL BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY EJECT OUT OF THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH A LARGER PORTION OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
LIKELY SEEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...BUT
WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
AS WELL AS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO PLEASE MONITOR STATEMENTS
OF IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

OKZ077-232100-
MCCURTAIN-
325 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
     MCCURTAIN...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BATTIEST AND SMITHVILLE...

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCTAVIA...OR 33
MILES WEST OF MENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE RURAL MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT 10 TO 15 MINUTES...BEFORE IT ENTERS SOUTHERN LEFLORE
COUNTY.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TXZ108-124-232230-
FRANKLIN-WOOD-
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     FRANKLIN AND WOOD...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     GOLDEN...MINEOLA...PLEASANT GROVE...PURLEY...QUITMAN AND
     WINNSBORO...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR QUITMAN...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
MINEOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STORM INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY WAS LOCATED NEAR GOLDEN. THIS STORM WAS ALSO MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
SOME WEAK ROTATION WAS ALSO NOTED WITH THESE STORMS.

13