Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE MCS PUSHING ACROSS EAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. 06Z KSHV FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES IMPRESSIVE CAPE
VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -11.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...CREATING A CHALLENGING
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY...TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8AM AREAWIDE.

WENT AHEAD WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. BY 18Z...EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN REMAINING SHOWERS.

SURFACE LOW...PROVIDING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...WILL
SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CREATING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY
EFFECTIVE FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

FORECAST DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN FLOW OF WARM GULF MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS ERN TX...NRN LA...AND SRN AR DURING 08Z
THROUGH 14Z THIS SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN THE
MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES ACCORDINGLY.  WITH PASSAGE OF LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING FROM W TO E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR AS DRY SLOTTING
AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION DEVELOP.  VIII.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  56  78  54  80 /  70  10  10  10  10
MLU  79  55  77  54  75 /  70  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  52  73  50  73 /  60  10  10  10  10
TXK  76  56  75  53  76 /  60  10  10  10  10
ELD  76  54  76  52  78 /  70  10  10  10  10
TYR  79  52  77  53  80 /  70  10  10  10  10
GGG  78  54  78  54  80 /  70  10  10  10  10
LFK  80  54  80  52  82 /  70  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

05/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECONDARY MAIN
STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR...STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL ABOUT NOON ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE TEXAS...THROUGH SHREVEPORT...AND INTO EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS MAY BE ACTIVATED ANYTIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

03

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