Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN...WITH ISOLD
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN RIDGE...OVER NW LA AND EAST TX LAKES.
ALONG EAST AND SOUTH PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...TSTM ACTIVITY BECMG
VIGOROUS. PLACED 40 POPS OVER SE CORNER OF CWA AND MENTIONED
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
DIURNAL. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUNK SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WITH SCATTERED LINE OF STORMS BEGINNING TO CLIP
SE OK. LEAVE IN ISOLD OVERNIGHT HOURS FAR NORTH CWA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WEST FRIDAY AND FRONT SAGS
SOUTH...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
CURRENTLY BEING GENERATED. TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION DICTATES
WHETHER HEAT ADVISORY CONDTIONS HOLD INTO TOMORROW AFTN...AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALSO WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING AFTN FRIDAY GIVEN TRENDS LAST COUPLE
DAYS FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS BEING GENERATED IN THIS
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME.
MEANWHILE...NEAR RECORD HOT TEMPERATURES PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SEASONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...TEMPERED BY INCREASED CONVECTION AND
PRESENCE OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS NORTH OF
FRONT STILL AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS UPPER LOW NORTH OF GREAT LAKES
RETREATS TO NE LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BRING POPS BACK TO ISOLD AND
SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR CENTURY MARK AS RIDGE REBUILDS BACK
INTO AREA...BUT THIS TIME WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
AR...RATHER THAN EAST TX./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
07/00Z. ONGOING...MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE WILL CREATE FLIGHT HAZARDS SUCH AND WIND...TURBULENCE AND
IFR VISIBILITIES. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.  MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD END BY 06/03Z...BUT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  99  78  96  76 /  20  30  30  20  20
MLU  80  96  76  95  78 /  20  40  30  30  20
DEQ  77  95  75  96  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
TXK  77  97  76  96  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
ELD  77  97  76  95  78 /  20  40  30  30  20
TYR  78 101  78  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
GGG  78 101  78  97  76 /  20  20  20  20  20
LFK  79 100  78  98  76 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>003-010-011-017.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ004>006-012>014-018>022.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ004>006-012>014-018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-011-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-
MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1148 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BETWEEN 99 AND 103 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY
OF WATER...STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM AND OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...NEIGHBORS...AND PETS.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE WIND GUST
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY...NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-012>014-018>022-061700-
UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
1148 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BETWEEN 99 AND 103 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES OF 110 TO 114 DEGREES. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AREA
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...STAY IN AN AIR
CONDITIONED ROOM AND OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON
RELATIVES...NEIGHBORS...AND PETS.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF WHICH WILL
AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY...NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VII

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