Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA...AND AFTERNOON
HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG WITH A PREVIOUS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
OVERNIGHT MOVING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS AND WILL OMIT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z MAINLY SE OF A
LFK...TO IER...TO MLU LINE. CBS IN THE TAF FOR MLU/LFK AND VCTS FOR
LFK. FEW/SCT CU FIELD WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FROM 6 TO 7 KFT. EXPECT
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN NW OF THE
SFC BNDRY. /23/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  20  20  30
MLU  95  70  92  70  93 /  20  20  20  20  40
DEQ  93  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  20  40
TXK  94  69  93  69  93 /  10  10  20  20  40
ELD  93  70  92  70  92 /  20  20  20  20  40
TYR  96  72  93  72  94 /  30  30  20  20  30
GGG  96  71  93  72  94 /  30  30  20  20  30
LFK  95  71  93  72  94 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

LAZ010-017>022-TXZ136-137-149>153-165>167-021100-
ANGELINA-CALDWELL-CHEROKEE-DE SOTO-GRANT-GREGG-LA SALLE-NACOGDOCHES-
NATCHITOCHES-PANOLA-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-SAN AUGUSTINE-SHELBY-
SMITH-WINN-
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
SOUTH AND WEST OF A TYLER TEXAS...TO MANSFIELD AND COLUMBIA
LOUISIANA LINE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AS BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 50 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FROM MID TO LATE WEEK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE AND HEATING
AND A BROAD AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO
ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-011>014-TXZ124>126-138-021100-
BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-CADDO-CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-HARRISON-JACKSON-LINCOLN-
MARION-OUACHITA-RED RIVER LA-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-WEBSTER-WOOD-
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MINEOLA TEXAS TO VIVIAN LOUISIANA...AND
MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES OR PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FROM MID TO LATE WEEK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE AND HEATING
AND A BROAD AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO
ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-021100-
BOWIE-CAMP-CASS-FRANKLIN-HEMPSTEAD-HOWARD-LAFAYETTE-LITTLE RIVER-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NEVADA-RED RIVER TX-SEVIER-TITUS-
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FROM MID TO LATE WEEK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF GULF MOISTURE AND HEATING
AND A BROAD AND WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO
ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

06

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