Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING WET...COOL AND LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND
CONTINUED COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING
WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD A 5500 DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST
LAYER WITH INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND TRENDS
WITH ABOUT 6 MB SAN-IPL.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG S
AND DEVELOP OVER THE W. THREE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH AND THROUGH SW CA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER
WEAKER ONE ON SUNDAY AND THE LAST MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE MONDAY.

THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
SATURDAY...BEGINNING IN ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING AND SPREADING S DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG OROGRAPHICS
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SW FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LARGEST
PRECIP TOTALS ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIP AGAIN
SUNDAY...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP AS ON
SATURDAY. THE THIRD WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS COULD
REACH WARNING STRENGTH WITH GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND INTO THE DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. OTHER AREAS
SHOULD GET MOSTLY ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH W
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES THROUGH MONDAY RANGE FROM ABOUT AN INCH AT THE
COAST...WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEYS INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. THE COASTAL SLOPES SHOULD GET THE BULK OF THE RAIN DUE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENT. THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS TO FIVE INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
LARGEST AMOUNTS 0N THE FAVORED SW FACING SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGH
DESERTS...AND UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OUT HIGH...ABOVE 7000 FT...AND THEN LOWER
TO ABOUT 4500 FT NORTH AND 5500 FT SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 6 TO 12 INCHES BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FT WITH
A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATE
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

COOL WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...DRY NW FLOW TUESDAY AND A DRY COOL
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CAUSE WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...
200400Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THE COASTAL BASIN WITH
BASES 3000-4000 FEET MSL WITH TOPS TO 6000 FEET AND LOCAL CEILINGS
OF 2000 FEET. AREAS OF TERRAIN BETWEEN THESE LEVELS WILL BE
OBSCURED. RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MAINLY BETWEEN 18-03Z WITH
LOCALLY LOWER VIS BELOW 3 MILES AND LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OVER THE MTNS/DESERTS WILL PEAK SATURDAY
WITH LOCAL SOUTHWEST GUSTS OVER 55 KNOTS OVER RIDGES AND DESERT MTN
SLOPES. A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS COULD OCCUR IN
COASTAL AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KSAN
IS BEING WATCHED FOR ANY POSSIBLE 30 KNOT GUSTS...BUT RIGHT NOW THE
INDICATIONS ARE FOR PEAK GUSTS SLIGHTLY BELOW 30 KNOTS...SO NO
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
200400Z...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND WILL BE IN EFFECT SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 30-35 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
192100Z...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
30-35 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH ABOUT 4 PM...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST-WEST.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...BEGINNING SATURDAY NOVEMBER 20 THE ROUTINE FIRE
WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ONCE PER DAY IN THE
MORNING. MORE FREQUENT UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TWICE A DAY ROUTINE ISSUANCE WILL RESUME IN MAY OF 2011. TREND
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED EVERY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. SEE LAXSPSSGX.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY THROUGH 12 AM PST MONDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY THROUGH 12 AM PST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. SEE LAXWSWSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEE
LAXCWFSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MM

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