Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. YET ANOTHER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH EVEN MORE RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

A BREAK IN THE PARADE OF STORMS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME FOLKS TO
RECOVER FROM TODAY'S ONSLAUGHT OF HEAVY WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL DAWN
FAIRLY QUIET...THEN TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORSE AS STORM NUMBER THREE
SLAMS INTO THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS EERILY
SIMILAR TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60 KT BY 5
PM...CREATING A FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER VERY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF
30-50 MPH AT THE COAST AND PEAK GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH.

PEAK WINDS GUSTS FROM EARLIER TODAY ARE HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO. NEWPORT BEACH REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 93
MPH.

FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED TODAY AND IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN LATER
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN. STRONG OROGRAPHICS WILL
ENHANCE RAIN RATES ON THE SW SLOPES OF THE SBD MTNS WHERE 2-4 INCHES
IS LIKELY. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN FALL TO 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE MTNS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

THERE WILL ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
STRONG...COLDER STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STORM IS A LITTLE COLDER AND THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500 FT FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...DRY NW FLOW SATURDAY AND RIDGING
SUNDAY WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER. ANOTHER WEAK STORM WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WEEKLY RAIN FALL TOTALS STILL IN LINE FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES
NEAR THE COAST WITH 15 TO LOCALLY 25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY ABOVE 7000
FEET...2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
200350Z...MOSTLY VFR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL FOG. CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH PARTIALLY OBSCURED TERRAIN. CIGS ABOVE
FL050 WILL THICKEN AFTER 18Z WED AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
IFR CIGS AND PRECIP DEVELOPING AGAIN BY EVENING AT MOST AREAS
AIRPORTS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATER WED ALONG THE
COAST. INDICATIONS ARE AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
KSAN THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
200350Z...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL HAS BUILT TO BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FEET
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FRI
PROMPTING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING LATE WED MORNING THROUGH
SAT. SEVERAL FRONTS ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CREATE A
LARGE WIND WAVE ON TOP OF THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL...CREATING
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 20 TO 25 FT RANGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MIDDAY ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY BEACHES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS.

&&

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
725 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

CAZ042-CAZ043-048-050-055>058-060>062-PZZ750-PZZ775-201200-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND-
725 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTLINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF TORNADOES.
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.

MOEDE

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