Gale Warning 1, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
530 AM PST MON JAN 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND HIGH SURF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS TO AROUND ONE THIRD INCH ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH...MAINLY WEST OF THE CAJON PASS. SOUTHERN AREAS MAINLY ONE
TENTH INCH OR LESS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...THEN
DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
TO 8 INCHES ON SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL DRIER AIR IN NORTHERN AREAS WITH SNOW
LEVELS HAVING LOWERED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 6500 FEET AS SHOWN BY RADAR BRIGHT BAND DATA. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUES...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 7500 FEET
DURING THE MORNING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
WEEK...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE IN ADVANCE OF EACH STORM...THEN FALL
BEHIND EACH WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND DURING THE WEEK FROM
AROUND 7500 FEET TODAY...TO 4500 T0 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

WITH THE VERY FAST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STORMS WILL BE
ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR WITH THIS FIRST STORM MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS ALSO MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE STORM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST POWERFUL IN THE SERIES.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY PREFRONTAL SOUTH WINDS IN
COASTAL AREAS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AND DRYING FOR THE
WEEKEND. THEN THE PACIFIC REOPENS FOR MORE STORMS NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS IMPACT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WITH 15 TO LOCALLY
25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ON
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING  SLOPES OF SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY ABOVE 7000 FEET...2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
191100Z...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET ASL...BUT WITH SOME AROUND 1500 FEET WITH
VIS AROUND 2SM IN SOME SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN
WILL INCREASE ABOUT 00-03Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY
AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET WITH VIS 3-5SM. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE BY
08-10Z TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LINDBERGH FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
191100Z...A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. A SERIES OF LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
THROUGH SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF STORMS. A VERY LARGE
SWELL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PST THURSDAY DUE
THE ROUGH SEAS AND PERIODS STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
KTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...COULD BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
FOR      RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT
     FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PST
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO
     THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN
     CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MACKECHNIE

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

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