Tornado Warning 41, NWS Springfield, MO

788 
WWUS53 KSGF 022355
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MOC011-097-030005-
/O.EXP.KSGF.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-100903T0000Z/
JASPER MO-BARTON MO-
655 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BARTON AND NORTHERN JASPER
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3750 9460 3744 9409 3729 9409 3729 9406
      3722 9406 3732 9462 3740 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 287DEG 39KT 3731 9434

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOW
RESIDES FROM NEAR THE KC METRO TO EMPORIA TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH
STEADILY DECREASING CIN. THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A BROAD
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
TRIGGER A MULTICELLULAR LINE OF TSRA ALONG THE FRONT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SFC
TO 700MB THETAE DIFFERENCES APPROACH OR EXCEED 30K...WHICH IS
ANOTHER INDICATOR OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...UPWARDS OF 30KT COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AS
THE BETTER WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT
AN EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR HAIL IS A
BIT MORE NEBULOUS AND MORE LIKELY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AS
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 14KFT. THE RISK FOR HAIL NEARING
SEVERE LEVELS IS THERE...THOUGH LOWER THAN THE WIND RISK. WHILE
THE TOR RISK IS ALWAYS NONZERO WITH CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ON THE ORDER
OF 15KT...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL. BOTTOM LINE...WIND IS THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE COLD FRONT STEADILY
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. INDICATIONS FROM
MESOSCALE MODELS INFER THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS PAUSE FOR CONCERN GIVEN HEAVY RAINS FROM
YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ADVERTISED FOR A
LOCALIZED...THOUGH ELEVATED...FLASH FLOOD RISK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST SUN/MON AND SETTLE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM TUE ONWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND REOPEN THE DOOR TO THE GULF. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE AREA ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL BASED
CONVECTION. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT BACK TOWARD AVERAGE GIVEN
PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 00Z AT THE
JOPLIN AERODROME...01Z AT SPRINGFIELD AND 02Z AT BRANSON
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR CONDITION WITH
RESPECT TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR BELOW...HOWEVER...
TIMING THE EXACT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A SHORT TERM ACTION. WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED NEARER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY 10Z.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
429 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
 THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS ELEVATED.
 THE FLOODING RISK IS ELEVATED.
 THE HAIL RISK IS LIMITED.
 THE EXTREME HEAT RISK IS LIMITED.

 DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A SCATTERED FASHION ACROSS THE
AREA. THROUGH 7 PM...A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF
THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AND INTO BRANSON. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AREAS NEAR
THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

AFTER 7 PM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
09/02/2010  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MOZ057-022230-
MILLER MO-
505 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KAISER...OR NEAR OSAGE BEACH...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ073-MOZ066-022315-
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
528 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN BOURBON AND SOUTHWESTERN
VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FORT SCOTT TO
PORTERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ073-097-022330-
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
603 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HEPLER TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAZILTON TO 6 MILES WEST OF
GREENBUSH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MOZ101-030000-
MCDONALD MO-
612 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 609 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MOZ090-095-030000-
GREENE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-
635 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATTLEFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

HATCH