Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SEVERE POTENTIAL UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT MIDDAY WITHIN A REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING AROUND
THIS TROUGH INTO ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS INHIBITED THE PRODUCTION OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVED OUT OF ARKANSAS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...THE OVERALL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING.

A MUCH GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BUT DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE AND
PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
ENDS THE RAIN TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AND POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

CROWE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED RISK OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
ELEVATED RISK OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES.
ELEVATED RISK OF LIGHTNING.
LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...

 THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
 THE REGION. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE INHIBITED BY
 LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER A FAVORABLE WIND FIELD COULD
 SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR
 MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO ROLLA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
 BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
 TORNADO.

 IN ADDITION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
 FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK
 OVER THE SAME AREAS.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

MOZ102>104-241915-
STONE MO-BARRY MO-TANEY MO-
138 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN TANEY...SOUTHEASTERN
BARRY AND SOUTHERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAMPE...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KIMBERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CAPE FAIR...GALENA...GOLDEN...INDIAN
POINT...KIMBERLING CITY...LAMPE...REEDS SPRING...SHELL KNOB...SILVER
DOLLAR CITY...WALNUT SHADE AND WEST BRANSON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE TABLE ROCK
LAKE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN TANEY...SOUTHEASTERN BARRY AND SOUTHERN STONE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING TABLE ROCK LAKE...KIMBERLING CITY...INDIAN POINT
AND WEST BRANSON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

KARDELL