Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 722 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/

RAPIDLY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SITUATION UNDERWAY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
REALLY MOVED WITH SOME GUSTO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ROUGH
ESTIMATE OF LOCATION IS FROM JUST SE OF SEDALIA TO JUST WEST OF
JOPLIN. THERE IS A MESS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALTERING WIND FIELDS
IN THE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY BOUNDARY/FRONT MERGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
CELLS AS THEY MAY POSE A OF A QUICK SPIN UP. SO FAR THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT HAS UNDERCUT THESE POTENTIAL MERGERS...BUT THESE WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR IS RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...
THOUGH IT HAS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ARE LOCATED IN THE BEST INSTABILITY...POSING THE BETTER RISK
FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. HAIL HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY
THUS FAR AND REPORTED WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED OF CELLS. THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR NATURE IS UNDERWAY...THUS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN SPOTS...BUT THE FLOODING RISK HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MORE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A LOCALIZED RISK IN AREAS
SATURATED FROM RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.

THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOW
RESIDES FROM NEAR THE KC METRO TO EMPORIA TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH
STEADILY DECREASING CIN. THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A BROAD
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
TRIGGER A MULTICELLULAR LINE OF TSRA ALONG THE FRONT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
AROUND 7 C/KM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SFC
TO 700MB THETAE DIFFERENCES APPROACH OR EXCEED 30K...WHICH IS
ANOTHER INDICATOR OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS MARGINAL...UPWARDS OF 30KT COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AS
THE BETTER WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT
AN EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR HAIL IS A
BIT MORE NEBULOUS AND MORE LIKELY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AS
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 14KFT. THE RISK FOR HAIL NEARING
SEVERE LEVELS IS THERE...THOUGH LOWER THAN THE WIND RISK. WHILE
THE TOR RISK IS ALWAYS NONZERO WITH CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ON THE ORDER
OF 15KT...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL. BOTTOM LINE...WIND IS THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE COLD FRONT STEADILY
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. INDICATIONS FROM
MESOSCALE MODELS INFER THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS PAUSE FOR CONCERN GIVEN HEAVY RAINS FROM
YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ADVERTISED FOR A
LOCALIZED...THOUGH ELEVATED...FLASH FLOOD RISK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST SUN/MON AND SETTLE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM TUE ONWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND REOPEN THE DOOR TO THE GULF. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE AREA ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL BASED
CONVECTION. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT BACK TOWARD AVERAGE GIVEN
PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN ISSUES FOR AREA AERODROMES WILL BE
SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE MOST COMMON WITHIN RAINFALL...WITH MVFR COMMON. BRIEF BOUTS OF
IFR ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE AT SGF...THOUGH DRYING SHOULD
RESULT IN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND VFR LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-
     077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

MOZ095-096-101>104-030200-
STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-BARRY MO-TANEY MO-MCDONALD MO-
804 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BARRY...CHRISTIAN...NORTHWESTERN
TANEY...SOUTHEASTERN MCDONALD...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
BOAZ TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WISE

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