Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAL WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO INSTABILITY INCREASING
AND THE MLCIN WEAKENING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN RISK...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND MLCAPES IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOST OF
DAY TIME HEATING.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH AN
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG HOLD
ON THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY SO WILL EXTEND THE HEAT WARNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 103 TO 110 RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

WISE

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.  BETTER PUSH OF NEW AIR
MASS WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER JET ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  SHOULD TRANSITION INTO
NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SINCE
17Z AND HAVE SENT OUT A CORRECTION TO SGF/BBG TAFS TO INCLUDE CB
MENTIONS. BELIEVE MOST OF THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.CLIMATE...

WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE WEST
PLAINS DATA IS FROM AN OFFICIAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER FROM 1948 TO
1995. DATA FROM 1996 TO PRESENT IS FROM THE WEST PLAINS AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM (ASOS).

DATE.....REC HIGH/YEAR...REC WARM LOW/YEAR

SPRINGFIELD...

AUGUST 12...104/1999...78/1936
AUGUST 13...100/2007...78/1936

JOPLIN...

AUGUST 12...104/1999...80/1943
AUGUST 13...103/1956...83/1943

WEST PLAINS...

AUGUST 12...104/2007...73/2005
AUGUST 13...101/2007...75/1956

VICHY/ROLLA...

AUGUST 12...105/2007...76/1995
AUGUST 13....98/1901...76/1995

SCHAUMANN/HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

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