Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS SURGING SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SKIRTING BY OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THE STORM COMPLEX TO CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS ALONG ANY OUTFLOW LEFT BY THE STORMS TO THE EAST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONTINUED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.  CONVECTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENTLY...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MID 70S DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI IS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  A LEESIDE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM THE NORTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASES SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO IS EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO LOWER A
FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DUE TO THIS
MIXING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDER
FORECASTING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT GOVERNS THE
HEAT INDEX FORECAST.

TURNING TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN SHOULD
STAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI ALONG THE MAIN STEERING FLOW
TRAJECTORY.  AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO LEBANON TO WARSAW WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE CONVECTION. I ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE LINE. THREAT
WISE...OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH
MODEST WIND SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SOME FORWARD PROPAGATING CELLS. WIND
AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WOULD BE SLOWER MOVING AND PULSE
TYPE IN NATURE. DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS. SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THE MCS CONTINUES
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...TAKING US OUT OF THE MAIN MCS TRACK.  UPPER LEVEL WARMING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO WORK TO INHIBIT PULSE CONVECTION.  EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH AMPLE HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE. A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST
OF THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
805 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

MOZ056-057-181400-
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
805 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MILLER AND NORTHERN MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 802 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SYRACUSE TO 6 MILES EAST OF SYRACUSE TO 5 MILES WEST OF
SYRACUSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELDON AND VERSAILLES.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

FOSTER