Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL TEND TO BE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS
THE EXPECTED HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT...OUTFLOW DOMINANT CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD PRETTY MUCH HAVE
CLEARED THE AREA AND/OR WEAKENED BY SUNSET. MAY HAVE TO MAKE A
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS TO COVER THIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED NICELY
TODAY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO
RECOVER...BUT EVEN THE WEST PLAINS DEW POINT HAS GOTTEN BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S. HOISTED A HEAT ADVISORY EARLIER OUT WEST AND IN
THE TRUMAN LAKE REGION. RECENT JOPLIN OBSERVATION CAME IN WITH A
HEAT INDEX OF 105. WILL GET MORE INTO THE LOGIC OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY IN A BIT.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER MCS. DO THINK WE WILL SEE ONE OR PERHAPS TWO MORE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH UPWIND PROPAGATING STORMS WOULD BRING THEM INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS DO NOT FAVOR MUCH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS. THEREFORE THINK WEAKENING STORMS PERHAPS CLIPPING
CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE THE BEST BET.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL SYNOPTIC
TRIGGERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST IF
NOT ALL MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NORTH. WIND FIELDS MAY
AGAIN FAVOR ACTIVITY CLIPPING CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO THEN INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH KNOCKING
DOWN THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A FRONT TO NUDGE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS WOULD PUT A LOW LEVEL THETA E GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI
OZARKS...SO AN MCS OR TWO WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 21 TO 24
DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. ALSO SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO DEW POINTS...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR AND IN THE TRUMAN
LAKE REGION HAVE SEEN HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 100 FOR THE LAST 3
DAYS. WITH MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THIS GENERAL AREA. IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND EXTENDED IN TIME...IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS TRUE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

1800Z TAFS...

ONLY CONCERNS TO AVIATION THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE THREAT OF
CONVECTION. STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO A
CHANCE OF A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL THAT BEING SAID...HAVE ONLY INDICATED CB
CLOUD GROUP IN TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL.

OTHER THAN CONVECTIVE THREATS TODAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12 KTS.
CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE.

BOXELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

SVR WW 372 JUST ISSUED FOR MORGAN...MILLER...AND MARIES COUNTIES.
PROGRESSIVE MCS/BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IS BEGINNING
TO MAKE A SE TURN AS OF 1845Z. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS
CONTINUES TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL
AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE BOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ORGANIZED...AS IT PROGRESSES WEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES AND
THUS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION COULD CLIP EXTREME NE PORTION OF CWA WHERE WW 372 IS IN
EFFECT...BUT OTHERWISE SUSPECT THAT ANY ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WITH
THE MCS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF SGF CWA.

OTHER CONCERN EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FURTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 18Z SGF RAOB SOUNDING AS
ARRIVED...AND INDICATES VERY DEEP AND DRY LAYER OF AIR
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A WARM LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 900 AND 700 MB. THIS
IS RESULTING IN ABOUT -150 J/K OF MLCINH...AND REALLY HAVE SERIOUS
DOUBTS THAT THIS CAN BE OVERCOME WITHOUT EITHER A MAJOR SOURCE OF
LIFT OR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING...NEITHER ONE OF
WHICH IS PRESENT. IF IT COULD BE OVERCOME...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
ALMOST NIL...SO ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE
TOUGH TO COME BY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE
WANING AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BOXELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-077-078-
     088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
443 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-202145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
443 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARD RISKS...

LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAIL AND WIND RISK.
LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED EXTREME HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE REST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A GUST FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
STORMS WITH 40 TO 45 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED...BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A LIMITED EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...MAINLY OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI,

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME... IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING TREND OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...GENERAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
06/19/2010                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STREET AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING IN
            SPRINGFIELD. THREE REPORTS OF WATER RESCUES...SELF
            RESCUES...CONSIDERED MINOR INCIDENTS. TWO ROADS BARACADED
            AND CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING IN TOWN. SEVERAL OTHER
            REPORTS OF FLOODING IN TOWN FROM THE PUBLIC AND MEDIA.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
06/19/2010  E0.50 INCH       BARRY              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PEA TO DIME HAIL

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

MOZ090-091-095-096-200015-
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...
SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINDEN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF OZARK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT WILL
REPLACE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HIGHLANDVILLE...NIXA...OZARK...
ROGERSVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD AND SPARTA.

PEOPLE IN CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING SPARTA...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

MOZ102>104-200030-
STONE MO-BARRY MO-TANEY MO-
633 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARRY...SOUTHERN STONE
AND TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
KISSEE MILLS TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TABLE ROCK TO EAGLE ROCK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON...FORSYTH...HOLLISTER...INDIAN
POINT...KIMBERLING CITY...MERRIAM WOODS...REEDS SPRING...ROCKAWAY
BEACH...TANEYVILLE AND WEST BRANSON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE ROARING
RIVER STATE PARK AND TABLE ROCK LAKE.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN BARRY...SOUTHERN STONE AND TANEY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING ROARING RIVER STATE PARK...HOLLISTER AND TABLE ROCK LAKE...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

ANGLE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             KIMBERLING CITY         36.63N 93.42W
06/19/2010  E0.88 INCH       STONE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT RELAYED THROUGH NWS CHAT. REPORTED BY LOCAL PD.

&&

DSA