Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL
OF AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
EXPECTED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS GOING IN
ERNEST FOR THE OZARKS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE...MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.
THUS...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN GET GOING WILL BE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. A CAP WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ABLE TO
FIND A HOLE IN THE CAP.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE TAKES UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE...WENT WITH CB
GROUPS IN PREVAILING. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE AROUND KJLN AND KBBG. ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
ANY STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET NUDGES EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS JET
WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KJLN.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1259 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1259 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
  AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
  MAINLY WEST OF A NEVADA TO CASSVILLE LINE. WIND GUSTS TO
  60 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...
  WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS ALSO POSSIBLE.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.
  WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. ALL STORMS THAT
  DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE
  GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
  EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH THE
  THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
  UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
  TIME.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE
  EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
  DEGREES POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF A NEVADA TO CASSVILLE LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

MOZ067-068-078-079-162330-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
554 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN CEDAR...POLK...ST.
CLAIR AND WESTERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APPLETON CITY TO 5 MILES NORTH OF MORRISVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BEFORE ANY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE APPLETON CITY...BOLIVAR...FAIR PLAY...
HERMITAGE...HUMANSVILLE...LOWRY CITY...MORRISVILLE...OSCEOLA...
WEAUBLEAU AND WHEATLAND.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT INCLUDE POMME DE
TERRE LAKE AND TRUMAN LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W LAMAR               37.49N 94.42W
06/16/2010                   BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            150 FOOT SILO SHED BLOWN OVER AT 160 AND SW 80TH.

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE HALLTOWN           37.22N 93.58W
06/16/2010                   GREENE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS UP TO 12 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER DOWN FROM 3 NE OF HALLTOWN TO BOIS DARC. MANY
            ROADS ARE BLOCKED WITH DEBRIS.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ROGERSVILLE         37.12N 93.12W
06/16/2010                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES OF 20+ INCHES IN DIAMETER REPORTED DOWN
            FROM THE INTERSECTION OF 125 AND HWY 60 TO THE
            INTERSECTION OF FARM ROAD 241 AND FARM ROAD 166.

&&

CCROWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E CONWAY              37.50N 92.73W
06/16/2010                   LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS 1 TO 2 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. WINDS GUSTS
            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

DSA