Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Springfield, MO

463 
WWUS83 KSGF 281753
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS...AND CURED PRAIRIE GRASSES TO
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN OZARKS
AND OSAGE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER...AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-290000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0007.101128T1800Z-101129T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-
DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...66...67...77...78...88...89...93...94...101
...102
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

IN KANSAS...73...97...101

LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO
OSCEOLA LINE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND CURED
PRAIRIE GRASSES TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS CAN SPREAD QUICKLY...EXHIBIT ERRATIC
BEHAVIOR...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CRAMER

201 
WWUS83 KSGF 282009
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS...

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS...AND CURED PRAIRIE
GRASSES TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WESTERN OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-290000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-101129T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-
DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
209 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...66...67...77...78...88...89...93...94...101
...102
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

IN KANSAS...73...97...101

LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO
OSCEOLA LINE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND CURED
PRAIRIE GRASSES TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS CAN SPREAD QUICKLY...EXHIBIT ERRATIC
BEHAVIOR...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

LINDENBERG

179 
WWUS83 KSGF 282344
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-290045-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-101129T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-
DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
544 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...

IN MISSOURI...66...67...77...78...88...89...93...94...101
...102

IN KANSAS...73...97...101

WHILE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS EVENING...BUT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NO LONGER
AT CRITICAL LEVELS.

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND WIND AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FROPA AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FOR MONDAY.

THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING TO SLIDE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TO OUR WEST...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS DEPICT A DIGGING TOUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A STRONG JET BEGINNING TO EJECT EAST
OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY
AT THIS HOUR AS A RESULT...WITH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO NORTH TO THE BLACK HILLS. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY...PUTTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SQUARELY IN THE SIGHTS OF AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. EXACT WIND SPEED FORECAST REMAINS A TAD TRICKY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OUR COUNTIES IN FAR EASTERN
KANSAS WILL LIKELY TOUCH SUSTAINED 30 MPH SPEEDS FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES FROM
18Z THIS AFTERNOON TO 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE NOT LOOKING TO MEET
CRITERIA...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
U.S. 65...WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT MANY
LOCATIONS DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER...THOUGH RELATED...CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 60.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH
VALUES RIGHT AROUND 25 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO
OSCEOLA LINE.  OBVIOUSLY WIND WON'T BE AN ISSUE...AND DESPITE RECENT
RAINS...FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AS WELL.
SO...WILL PLAN ON A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
FROM BARRY COUNTY TO ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND POINTS TO THE WEST.

DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO RETURN TONIGHT...AND HAVE PULLED
POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE LAYER THAT DOES RETURN OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW (LIKELY AT OR BELOW 700 MB)...AND 300K AND
295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT ANY LIFT WILL BE EQUALLY
SHALLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...DID THROW IN A MENTION OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING AS WHAT SHOULD BE
A THICKENING STRATUS DECK MAY SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF MOISTURE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED BETWEEN
TOPEKA AND OMAHA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS.  ALOFT...A STRENGTHENING JET CORE...PROGGED TO BE 120-140
KTS AT 250 MB BY EVENING...SHOULD BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  LARGE
SCALE LIFT/DIVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH AN
EXPECTED EXPANSION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
EAST OF U.S. 71 BY MIDDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER THAT AREA.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING MOST OF THE CWA BY
06-08Z...AND SHOULD CERTAINLY BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY AND DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-44 AND EAST OF U.S. 65.
CERTAINLY NO WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OTHER STORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE QUICK REMINDER
FROM MOTHER NATURE THAT DECEMBER 1...AND THUS METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER...IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 20S...AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.  COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...THIS SHOULD YIELD MORNING WIND CHILLS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS...WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

BOXELL

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

00Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST MID TO
LATE WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW
IMPULSES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN SPARSE AND HAVE KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(ECMWF/UKMET PEGS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GEFS PEGS SATURDAY). HAVE
CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER EURO GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE...BOTTOMING
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND PEAKING AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS
WITH MARGINAL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING AFTER 08-09Z. PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALREADY TIGHTENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONGER WIND SHEAR WILL SET UP
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LATEST NAM SHOWING 50-60 KNOT WINDS AT 850
MB.

TERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED 247 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010/

NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA LINE.  RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALIZED VALUES
CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT.  ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES...WINDS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...AS RH
VALUES ALSO BEING TO RECOVER.

BOXELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-290300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
850 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH
  DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM
  SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN
  30 AND 35 PERCENT ON SUNDAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
  TO CREATE AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
  WEST OF U.S. 65 AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI BORDER.

  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
  ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
  OZARKS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY