Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

785 
WWUS83 KSGF 072354
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
MONDAY...

.BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT...WITH SOME
AREAS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY
VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A GALENA
TO MARSHFIELD TO ROLLA LINE...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103-
080800-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-101108T0000Z/
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0006.101108T1600Z-101109T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
554 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...55...56...57...58...66...67...68...69...70
...71...77...78...79...80...81...88...89...90...91
...93...94...95
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED
STARTING AROUND MID MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD AND GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

MOZ082-092-096-097-104-105-080800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0006.101108T1600Z-101109T0000Z/
TEXAS-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-TANEY-OZARK-
554 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...82...92...96...97...104...105

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED STARTING AROUND MID MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD AND GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

GRIFFIN

148 
WWUS83 KSGF 080757
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY...

.BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS
THE REGION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM LATE THIS 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-090000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0006.101108T1600Z-101109T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
157 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...55...56...57...58...66...67...68...69...70
...71...77...78...79...80...81...82...88...89...90
...91...92...93...94...95...96...97...101...102...103
...104...105
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW
FUEL MOISTURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO
EXPECTED STARTING AROUND MID MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD AND GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

WISE

366 
WWUS83 KSGF 081512
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
912 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT. DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS THE
REGION...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-082315-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0006.101108T1600Z-101109T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
912 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...55...56...57...58...66...67...68...69...70
...71...77...78...79...80...81...82...88...89...90
...91...92...93...94...95...96...97...101...102...103
...104...105
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD AND GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

BOXELL

671 
WWUS83 KSGF 082043
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE 25 PERCENT...FIRE
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE FIELD HAVE REPORTED NUMEROUS FIRE
STARTS...AND DIFFICULTY IN CONTROLLING EXISTING FIRES. ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT...FUEL MOISTURE
READINGS REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH SUNDOWN.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-090000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-101109T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
243 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...55...56...57...58...66...67...68...69...70
...71...77...78...79...80...81...82...88...89...90
...91...92...93...94...95...96...97...101...102...103
...104...105
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. FIRE 
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL HAVE REPORTED NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS...AND
DIFFICULTY IN CONTROLLING EXISTING FIRE ACTIVITY TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR
THE RAPID SPREAD AND GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

BOXELL

661 
WWUS83 KSGF 082352
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING..

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105-090100-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-101109T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
552 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN MISSOURI...55...56...57...58...66...67...68...69...70
...71...77...78...79...80...81...82...88...89...90
...91...92...93...94...95...96...97...101...102...103
...104...105
IN KANSAS...73...97...101

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OUT OF THE CRITICAL
CRITERIA BUT STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE AND THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE RELAXED.

$$

GRIFFIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS EARLY MORNING DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 20S TO THE UPPER TEENS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP USHER WARMER
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MODELS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST IN RETURNING MOISTURE TO
THE AREA TODAY...AND HAVE AGAIN LOWERED DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FROM
THOSE OF THE MODELS...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WILL SLOW THE
MOISTURE RETURN AS ANY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WILL HAVE TO GO
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO REACH THE OZARKS. THERE
ARE QUITE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS ALSO...SO IT WILL
TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET MOISTURE BACK UP THIS WAY. THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS TO MIX OUT INTO THE TEENS.
THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS
IS. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AS A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW...HOWEVER WILL
STILL BE SLOW TO FULL RETURN. SO...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LAST TO RETURN TO. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN TOMORROW...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
65...DUE TO THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. AGAIN REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE 0Z GFS DID SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN
MORE THAN FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 0Z ECMWF CAME IN FASTER WITH
THE SYSTEM FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. SO..THEY ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT AGAIN THERE STILL REMAINS LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. FOR THIS PACKAGE HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
THESE SYSTEMS.

WITH THAT SAID EXPECT THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PUSH A WEAK
FRONT INTO OR NEAR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REALLY NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE BETTER
DYNAMICS PUSHING NORTH...DO NOT EXPECTED THIS FRONT TO PUSH TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT STAYING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE GFS SLIDES IT INTO THE AREA. THINK THE
FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA THAT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ARE WARRANTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND THE FACT THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...DO NOT EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY
MEANS. THINK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

THE SECOND AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AS
THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK
STILL IN QUESTION HAVE BROAD BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS.  DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.  OVERNIGHT...THESE
INCREASED WINDS WILL BE HELD ALOFT BY COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE...MAKING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROBABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY MID MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

KARDELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...AS WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THESE
CONDITIONS THE GROUND IS VERY DRY DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINS.
PER RAWS OBSERVATIONS...10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN
DIPPING INTO THE 5-7 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY CURING GRASSES
ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FUEL FOR ANY
FIRE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT RH
VALUES WILL TANK INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. WIND VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT MARGINAL...BUT
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT EVEN MARGINAL WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH
SUCH LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FROM THE CENTRAL OZARKS WEST TO EXTREME
EASTERN KANSAS.

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST
OF A GALENA TO MARSHFIELD TO VERSAILLES LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER TO THE EAST AND WELL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE WINDS FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THESE AREAS TOO. WILL CONTINUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTING THE SUB-CRITICAL BUT
STILL ELEVATED FIRE RISK.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
OZARKS AGAIN ON MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CASSVILLE TO
GREENFILD TO BOLIVAR TO VICHY LINE ON MONDAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-069>071-
     079>082-089>092-094>097-102>105.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1236 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  THE FIRE WEATHER RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
  THE WIND RISK IS LIMITED.

DISCUSSION....

  WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

  THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS...EXTREMELY DRY
  VEGETATION...AS WELL AS THE BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
  WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE
  WEATHER THREAT IS FOR AREAS WEST OF A GALENA TO MARSHFIELD
  TO ROLLA LINE...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. OPEN
  FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS CAN RAPIDLY ESCAPE CONTROL AND ARE
  DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN...EVEN FOR EXPERIENCED FIRE PERSONNEL.

  DUE TO THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
  THE FOREST SERVICE...CONSERVATION OFFICIALS...AND PUBLIC
  SAFELY OFFICIALS ARE STRONG DISCOURAGING OUTDOOR BURNING AT
  THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON MONDAY.

  WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
  ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
  MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER
  LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1037 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010

...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...BRISK AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND EXTREMELY DRY VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WEST OF A GALENA TO
MARSHFIELD TO ROLLA LINE. OPEN FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS CAN
QUICKLY ESCAPE CONTROL AND ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN...EVEN
FOR EXPERIENCED FIRE PERSONNEL. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO A VERY DRY
AIRMASS...EXTREMELY DRY VEGETATION...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OPEN FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS CAN EASILY ESCAPE
CONTROL AND ARE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN...EVEN FOR EXPERIENCED FIRE
PERSONNEL.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
OZARKS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF CASSVILLE
TO GREENFIELD TO ELDON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE
FOREST SERVICE...CONSERVATION OFFICIALS...AND PUBLIC SAFELY
OFFICIALS ARE STRONG DISCOURAGING OUTDOOR BURNING AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN